Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study
Statement of Work and Budget FY2012

BPA Project Number:  2003-009-00
BPA Project Title: Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study
FY07 Contract Number:  29753
FY08 Contract Number:  34892
FY09 Contract Number:  39197
FY10 Contract Number:  44358
FY11 Contract Number:  50871
FY12 CR:  202620

Contract Title: PI 2003-009-00 Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study  
Performance/Budget Period: October 1, 2011 to September 30, 2012

The primary objective of the Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study is to assess the effects of climate change and ocean conditions on the marine survival and production of Columbia River Basin salmon.  Documenting the extent of changes in growth, along with changes in physical features of the ocean will help to improve our understanding of how climatic events such as El Niño in the ocean can impact important fish resources.  This research is essential to fishery managers that wish to establish harvest strategies and conservation measures for the sustainable use of Columbia River salmon, as well as to assess the success of mitigation measures undertaken in the Columbia River Basin in the face of a changing ocean and climate.

The working hypothesis of this research is that the marine survival of salmon is mediated by the effects of ocean conditions on salmon growth during their first year at sea.  In particular, Columbia River salmon experiencing faster growth are expected to have lower mortality.  Similarly, Columbia River salmon that accumulate higher energy and lipid reserves prior to the onset of winter are expected to exhibit lower overwinter mortality than those in poor conditions.  In the marine environment, the bioenergetics processes regulating salmon growth may vary in relation to changes in temperature, ocean productivity, and prey community structure, and may be affected by changes in ocean circulation and climate.  More specifically, large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation may affect ocean productivity through changes in mixed-layer depth, horizontal transport of nutrients, and upwelling, while prey community composition may vary in response to changes in horizontal transport.

This project is divided into three components:

1) Research: An assessment of the factors affecting the marine survival of Columbia River salmon, which involves identifying where these fish are in the marine environment at different time of the year, estimate their growth rates, and their bioenergetics response to changing ocean conditions and climate. Results from this research are disseminated through BPA annual reports, data reports, peer-reviewed publications, and presentations at national and international workshop and conferences.

2) Monitoring: Measurements of the ocean conditions experienced by Columbia River salmon off the coast of British Columbia and Southeast Alaska, as well as their overall health. This information required to address all the components of this project. Data collected in this project stored in databases located at Fisheries and Oceans Canada and available upon request.

3) Evaluation: Development of forecasting models of run size for Columbia River salmon due to changing ocean conditions. This serves as a basis to evaluate the potential success (or failure) of recovery/mitigation effort and to anticipate how Columbia River salmon will respond to climate change. This initiative requires information generated from the first two components of the project.

To date our research indicates that Columbia River spring Chinook salmon, coho salmon, and sockeye salmon generally undertake a rapid northward migration that quickly brings them well beyond the Columbia River Estuary and Plume to expose them to ocean conditions prevailing on the west coast of British Columbia, and subsequently to those in Alaska.  In contrast, Columbia River summer and fall Chinook salmon generally remain in coastal waters ranging from the northern tip of Vancouver Island in British Columbia down to the Columbia River, and are thus affected by ocean conditions in the northern California Current System.  Our research further shows that the marine survival and adult returns of Columbia River summer and fall Chinook salmon and sockeye salmon are strongly influenced by growth conditions and plankton assemblages that prevail off the west coast of Vancouver Island.  As a result, a series of simple models has been developed as part of the Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study that can be used to accurately forecast the marine survival and adult returns of these stocks 1-2 years prior to their return to the Columbia River.  These models may also be used by managers to partition the effects associated with changes in freshwater events such as dam operations and freshwater restoration from those solely due to changing ocean conditions and climate.

For FY12 and beyond, the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans (CDFO) plans to continue developing and evaluating these forecasting models through the Canada-USA Salmon Shelf Survival Study by conducting trawl surveys off British Columbia and Southeast Alaska, and monitoring the ocean conditions experienced by juvenile Columbia River salmon in these regions.  Special attention will be given to Columbia River spring Chinook salmon and Snake River sockeye salmon, as current models fail to predict the return of these stocks.  It is critically important that the stability of models developed by CDFO are assessed over time, as relationship that are based on relatively short-term time series, such as those developed in this project, commonly break apart over time. The migratory behavior of Columbia River coho salmon will also be examined in closer details in FY11, as CDFO is currently in the process of updating the coho DNA baseline, which proved to be problematic in previous years especially for stocks originating from Washington State and Northern British Columbia. A formal evaluation of the baseline will first be performed with fish of known origin.

The objectives of this research will be achieved by (1) collecting juvenile salmon and oceanographic data from the west coast of Vancouver Island to southeast Alaska during spring/summer, fall, and winter, (2) assessing the growth and feeding conditions of juvenile salmon collected from these areas, (3) assessing the ocean productivity of these areas, (4) reconstructing the migration of specific stocks using DNA analyses, and (5) developing and testing forecasting models of run size for Columbia River salmon. These areas are frequently utilized by juvenile Chinook salmon, coho salmon, and sockeye salmon from the Columbia River during their first years in the ocean. To obtain a broader perspective of the effects of ocean conditions on juvenile salmon, this research will be coordinated with concomitant sampling programs conducted by NOAA Fisheries from California to Washington and in Alaska (BPA project 1998-014-00) as well as the POST program (BPA project 2003-114-00). In particular, samples will be shared among laboratories to enhance our understanding of the processes limiting the production of Columbia River salmon in the marine environment, to more effectively use the expertise of the research centers studying the marine life of salmon, to avoid duplication of effort, and to promote international cooperation on highly migratory species that are co-managed by Canada and USA. The results of this research will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and data reports, and will be presented at national and international conferences.

The work elements for this project fall into 5 different objectives:

Objective 1 - Monitoring
WE C: Collect/Genera/Validate Field and Lab Data - Ocean Surveys of Marine Conditions and Juvenile Salmon
WE D: Collect/Genera/Validate Field and Lab Data - Oceanography
WE E: Collect/Genera/Validate Field and Lab Data - Biological Attributes of Juvenile Salmon

Objective 2 - Data analysis
WE F: Analyze/Interpret Data - Nutrient Limitations
WE G: Analyze/Interpret Data - Ocean Ecology of Salmon
WE H: Analyze/Interpret Data - Marine Mortality of Salmon

Objective 3 - Communication and Publication
WE I: Disseminate Raw and Summary Data - Data Reports
WE J: Produce/Submit Scientific Report Findings - Primary Publications
WE K: Disseminate Raw and Summary Data - Presentation at Scientific Conferences

Objective 4 - Coordination
WE L: Coordination - USA-Canada Collaboration

Objective 5 - Administrative
WE A: Produce Environmental Compliance Documentation - Environmental Compliance for Sampling in USA Waters
WE B: Manage and Administer Projects - Accrual Estimates
WE M: Produce Status Report - Quarterly Reports via Pisces
WE N: Produce Annual Report - Annual Report