Comment:

The ISRP was impressed by the proposal, results-to-date, and the project review presentation. There are, however, several items that the proponents should consider (these are detailed below). Most importantly, the ISRP would appreciate knowing the topics and timelines for completing the multi-part synthesis (i.e., peer-reviewed publications) over the next year or two.

1. Objectives, Significance to Regional Programs, and Technical Background

Project objectives are to (1) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance, productivity, and spawning distribution of natural-origin adults, and (2) inform recovery actions taken to increase the abundance and diversity of natural-origin subyearlings during early freshwater rearing and migration. The project objectives are well aligned with the Snake River fall Chinook salmon recovery plan, the current biological opinion, and the Council's 2014 Fish and Wildlife Program and 2017 Research Plan.

However, the proponents should establish quantitative objectives, specific timelines, and hypotheses to guide the research/monitoring. The stated objectives are actually work elements described in vague terms as to what is expected to be accomplished. Although the project objectives are not quantitative, the text associated with each objective identified criteria for success. That said, the ISRP would like to see a long-range vision articulated for the project, as well as criteria for success identified for that vision.

The proponents mention that several regional programs use the data that are generated by the project. However, it is not clear to the ISRP that these regional programs require those data. Please consider adding letters of support from those programs to future proposals.

2. Results and Adaptive Management

Status and trend monitoring of juvenile and adult fall Chinook are described and provide important information on the recovery of this ESU. The project's monitoring program revealed strong density dependence in fall Chinook salmon recruitment. The mechanism leading to this is unknown. The ISRP also notes that millions of hatchery fish are released with a large portion (20% or more) unmarked, leading to less certainty about the status of the natural population. The proponents and decision-makers associated with this project should carefully consider these issues in crafting future project actions.

 The proponents make a few statements that would benefit from further explanation:

·         Density dependence (p. 6): "Although it is not likely that the capacity of the spawning habitat is a large factor for the density dependent population response being observed (Groves et al. 2013*), we have observed large-scale redd superimposition at some spawning areas that could explain this." The ISRP is curious as to why other possible factors (e.g., juvenile growth) were not considered.

·         Is there a publication or document showing how the life-cycle and passage models are linked (see p. 16)? And how are the outputs from that linkage effective in improving population status and management?

·         The proponents state that they account for climate change, predation, and potential food web changes (p. 16) "by fitting stock-recruitment functions to predict changes in adult and juvenile abundance from covariates derived from empirical data collected on stream flow, temperature, and ocean conditions." This is confusing to the ISRP since the proponents do not collect data on these important factors. What is the origin of these data?

·         Budget (p. 22): It would be useful to know the amounts devoted to data synthesis and preparation of professional publications in each year, as well as for public outreach.

3. Methods: Project Relationships, Work Types, and Deliverables

Although specific methodology was not described in the proposal, annual reports provided more details. The reports noted that more accurate identification of redds is needed. Deliverables noted in the proposal included redd counts, spawner origin determination based on PBT (300 fish), stock-recruitment analysis, juvenile PIT tagging, juvenile run reconstruction, the life cycle model, and associated information. The project uses standard statistical methods.

Project relationships are described at several places in the proposal. However, the mechanisms underlying these relationships are not always clearly described. Are there any problems or issues associated with project relationships that ISRP could assist with in the near future?

This ongoing project has collected field data on Snake River fall Chinook salmon spawning activity, juvenile recruitment, survival, and growth for almost two decades, and proposes to continue these studies. The project also manages a very ambitious PIT-tagging program, with almost 400,000 hatchery fall Chinook PIT tagged annually. This project has provided a large portion of the available data on the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon ESU. The data have been used for development of the recovery plan, for planning of the Lyons Ferry hatchery program, and for design of the summer flow augmentation program. The study documented overwintering of juvenile fall Chinook salmon in the hydropower system reservoirs, and contributed to the decision to extend the operation of the juvenile bypass system at Lower Granite Dam later into the fall. This project is a collaborative effort between the USFWS and the USGS, and will provide information essential to NOAA life-cycle modeling efforts. A number of additional Federal and State agencies are involved in data collecting and reporting. The activities funded by this proposal would not duplicate other efforts.

This project is well integrated with other regional RM&E efforts relating to Snake River fall Chinook, as would be expected of a project with a nearly 20-year history. The proposal addresses RPAs in the BiOp, the AMIP, and Council’s draft MERR plan. The 2008 BiOp calls for (continuing) investigations of the early life history of Snake River fall Chinook salmon and of the effects of the hatchery program on natural productivity. The NPCC’s Fish and Wildlife Program calls for research on the effects of predation in the mainstem on juvenile salmonids, as does the Adaptive Management Implementation Plan (AMIP). The AMIP also calls for the development of improved life-cycle and passage models for ESA-listed salmonid stocks. The proposal has easily identifiable objectives and tasks related to these needs.

This was a well-written proposal for a project with an excellent track record of success and accomplishment (e.g., 32 peer-reviewed journal articles) over its long history. Project proponents have made a number of presentations to the ISAB and ISRP over the years in which major findings have been analyzed and discussed. The project has clearly benefited Snake River fall Chinook salmon over the years and will likely continue to do so. In particular, this proposal seems to be especially good at describing how data collection and data analysis/modeling will work together. It is more than a monitoring project. It is truly a combination monitoring and research/modeling effort. Their proposal is thus a well-synthesized effort at data collection and high-level analyses with clear applicability to management. The itemized list of management changes that have resulted from the findings of this study constitutes strong evidence of adaptive management. Their general approach could (and should) be applied to other programs in the Basin.

Some limitations on the extent and reliability of data collected by this project have been resolved (differentiating between natural-origin Fall and Spring Chinook subyearlings and between natural-origin Fall Chinook and hatchery-origin subyearlings), while others have not (inability to tag subyearlings <49 mm, uncertainty about effects of flow on beach-seining efficiency, lack of data on passage of juveniles during winter months).

One of the highlights of the project’s discoveries has been the recognition of a reservoir overwintering life history attribute in some Snake River fall Chinook, and extension of operation of the juvenile bypass systems at the lower Snake dams reflects this new understanding of year-round movement patterns. The research questions have been refined and focused over the years, and are addressing some of the most critical data gaps concerning this ESU.

The technical background and objectives were clearly organized and explained. For each objective, detailed methods are provided. The project relies on standard field sampling methods. Deliverables, work elements, metrics and methods are well described in the proposal. The discussions of population modeling and the approaches to fitting stock-recruitment curves were especially thorough. Project proponents appear well equipped to carry out the work.

Of particular value in this proposed work are their analyses of abundance and growth data with stock recruitment relationships to address the idea of density dependence in supplementation programs. Post supplementation, there has been a significant decrease in smolt size. Hatchery supplementation has been associated with large increases in redd counts, followed by a leveling off/slight decline of natural fish. There are some indications that density dependent factors might be acting as stock size rebuilds. Whether or not density-dependence or other hatchery-wild interactions are occurring may be a contentious issue, but regardless of the outcome, addressing these questions with their long-term data sets is a highly important use of the data, and an appropriate approach for evaluating and shaping other supplementation projects in the basin as well. Results of the analysis should provide a biological basis for recovery goals. The proponents also have a riverine bass predation element to their project that will provide information related to survival. This project is exemplary in that it is making the attempt to truly assess a supplementation program not just through intermediate steps such as more smolts or more redds, but in terms of its ultimate impact on recovery, the wild stock, density effects, and other higher level population dynamics.

This ongoing project has collected field data on Snake River fall Chinook salmon spawning activity, juvenile recruitment, survival, and growth for almost two decades, and proposes to continue these studies. The project also manages a very ambitious PIT-tagging program, with almost 400,000 hatchery fall Chinook PIT tagged annually. This project has provided a large portion of the available data on the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon ESU. The data have been used for development of the recovery plan, for planning of the Lyons Ferry hatchery program, and for design of the summer flow augmentation program. The study documented overwintering of juvenile fall Chinook salmon in the hydropower system reservoirs, and contributed to the decision to extend the operation of the juvenile bypass system at Lower Granite Dam later into the fall. This project is a collaborative effort between the USFWS and the USGS, and will provide information essential to NOAA life-cycle modeling efforts. A number of additional Federal and State agencies are involved in data collecting and reporting. The activities funded by this proposal would not duplicate other efforts. This project is well integrated with other regional RM&E efforts relating to Snake River fall Chinook, as would be expected of a project with a nearly 20-year history. The proposal addresses RPAs in the BiOp, the AMIP, and Council’s draft MERR plan. The 2008 BiOp calls for (continuing) investigations of the early life history of Snake River fall Chinook salmon and of the effects of the hatchery program on natural productivity. The NPCC’s Fish and Wildlife Program calls for research on the effects of predation in the mainstem on juvenile salmonids, as does the Adaptive Management Implementation Plan (AMIP). The AMIP also calls for the development of improved life-cycle and passage models for ESA-listed salmonid stocks. The proposal has easily identifiable objectives and tasks related to these needs. This was a well-written proposal for a project with an excellent track record of success and accomplishment (e.g., 32 peer-reviewed journal articles) over its long history. Project proponents have made a number of presentations to the ISAB and ISRP over the years in which major findings have been analyzed and discussed. The project has clearly benefited Snake River fall Chinook salmon over the years and will likely continue to do so. In particular, this proposal seems to be especially good at describing how data collection and data analysis/modeling will work together. It is more than a monitoring project. It is truly a combination monitoring and research/modeling effort. Their proposal is thus a well-synthesized effort at data collection and high-level analyses with clear applicability to management. The itemized list of management changes that have resulted from the findings of this study constitutes strong evidence of adaptive management. Their general approach could (and should) be applied to other programs in the Basin. Some limitations on the extent and reliability of data collected by this project have been resolved (differentiating between natural-origin Fall and Spring Chinook subyearlings and between natural-origin Fall Chinook and hatchery-origin subyearlings), while others have not (inability to tag subyearlings <49 mm, uncertainty about effects of flow on beach-seining efficiency, lack of data on passage of juveniles during winter months). One of the highlights of the project’s discoveries has been the recognition of a reservoir overwintering life history attribute in some Snake River fall Chinook, and extension of operation of the juvenile bypass systems at the lower Snake dams reflects this new understanding of year-round movement patterns. The research questions have been refined and focused over the years, and are addressing some of the most critical data gaps concerning this ESU. The technical background and objectives were clearly organized and explained. For each objective, detailed methods are provided. The project relies on standard field sampling methods. Deliverables, work elements, metrics and methods are well described in the proposal. The discussions of population modeling and the approaches to fitting stock-recruitment curves were especially thorough. Project proponents appear well equipped to carry out the work. Of particular value in this proposed work are their analyses of abundance and growth data with stock recruitment relationships to address the idea of density dependence in supplementation programs. Post supplementation, there has been a significant decrease in smolt size. Hatchery supplementation has been associated with large increases in redd counts, followed by a leveling off/slight decline of natural fish. There are some indications that density dependent factors might be acting as stock size rebuilds. Whether or not density-dependence or other hatchery-wild interactions are occurring may be a contentious issue, but regardless of the outcome, addressing these questions with their long-term data sets is a highly important use of the data, and an appropriate approach for evaluating and shaping other supplementation projects in the basin as well. Results of the analysis should provide a biological basis for recovery goals. The proponents also have a riverine bass predation element to their project that will provide information related to survival. This project is exemplary in that it is making the attempt to truly assess a supplementation program not just through intermediate steps such as more smolts or more redds, but in terms of its ultimate impact on recovery, the wild stock, density effects, and other higher level population dynamics.

We are willing to work closely with the development of the regional PIT plan and regional assessements of tagging needs and priorities.

With respect to support for life cycle modeling for climate change assessments, the proposal included the following under the emerging issues section.

Climate change will likely result in: (1) early peak flows, (2) a decrease in peak flows, and (3) an increase in water temperature (ISAB 2007).  The ISAB proposed that climate change will have the most significant impacts on the early life stages of fall Chinook salmon, which rear in mainstem habitats.  In summary, the ISAB hypothesized that climate change will lead to: (1) earlier fry emergence, (2) a smaller size at emergence, (3) earlier departure from protective rearing habitat, (4) reduced survival due to changes in rearing behavior due to predation, (5) increased metabolism and decreased growth if food resources are limited in less optimal habitat in down-river reaches, (6) forebay delay, (7) decreased smolt survival, and (8) a reduction in life history diversity if late summer temperatures become lethal and kill that later summer migrants and those fish destined to become fall migrants or to overwinter in reservoirs.  This proposal takes climate change and predation into account by fitting stock recruitment functions to predict changes in adult and juvenile abundance from covariates derived from empirical data collected on stream flow, temperature, and ocean conditions.

Project leader Connor is a member and researcher on the AMIP steering comittee and has already attended the opening coordination meeting where state of the art climate change models were presented and discussed in detail.  We did not fully develop a climate section in our proposal because we knew in advance we would be participants in AMIP and that AMIP would take the lead on the climate change issue.  We will continue to participate in AMIP and provide our knowledge and fish data to the true experts on climate change to avoid duplication of effort and provide the best product for the region. 

 

This is a well-prepared proposal to continue a project that has been exceptionally productive and well organized. In many respects it is a model proposal. The project is devoted to Snake River fall Chinook and has a proven track record of providing important information necessary to this species' recovery and deserves to be continued.

The technical and scientific background is very well written with a clear explanation of the project's history and a persuasive rationale for the work. A point the sponsors may wish to consider is that the use of F1 and F2 generations for supplementation seem ambiguous, and probably inappropriately used here. Is the F1 generation those individuals that are of hatchery-origin, and the F2 those individual born in the wild from the F1 (hatchery-origin) parents? In at least some circles, the hatchery-origin adults spawning in the wild would be the P1 generation; the progeny of these hatchery fish spawning naturally the F1 generation, and their progeny the F2 generation.

The proposal does a very good job of relating the work to the FCRPS BiOps, the Council's Fish and Wildlife Program, and the various COE programs. Subbasin plans aren't mentioned although Snake River fall Chinook do enter the lower reaches of several subbasins. There is a good description of the relationship of this project to other work.

The proposal sets a standard for a concise year-by-year summary of the project's history, along with the reports and peer-reviewed publications. The proposal sets an example for others by identifying the adaptive management implications of their investigations.

Objectives, hypotheses, and methods are clearly described, along with the timelines for completion. The proposal was very explicit, right down to the sample size and statistical tests in many instances. The methods have a proven track record. One statement that may be in error is that "growth of parr and smolts will be directly proportional to temperature." Actually, this statement will only be true over the cooler range and if food availability increases in direct proportion to temperature and provides enough to compensate for the increased basal metabolic requirements of the fish that accompany higher temperatures. At higher temperatures, generally above about 18°C for Chinook salmon, growth rate normally declines because of over-riding metabolic demands. In other words, there may be some scenarios in which growth of parr and smolts is inversely proportional to temperature if temperatures are high and food resources are inadequate. An accurate estimation of food availability is needed, especially when making inferences about the potential for reduced growth of wild fish in the face of large numbers of supplemented fish (these comments apply to Objective 2).

The project will be thoroughly monitored and evaluated. The statistical analyses have been peer-reviewed (in prior publications) and are suitable. The proposal gives a good description of how the results can feed back into hydrosystem operations decisions, e.g., summer spill.

An excellent feature of the proposal is clear identification of how they are going to use their primary data to test prevailing assumptions about the state of nature, and then the implications of the inference for the next steps in developing management options. Most proposals fail to make a clear connection between the studies they are proposing and deciding among (or designing new) management schemes.

The results will be made available in reports, peer-reviewed publications, internet postings, and presentations. Plans for long-term storage of data and meta-data are not completely described, but they are assumed to be adequate. The project staff are some of the best publishers among all BPA projects.

In summary, this is a fine example of an effective proposal.

The ISRP is not requesting a response, but qualifies this fundable recommendation because this is such a small activity or component of the Fish and Wildlife Program. It would be better if it was more clearly integrated into a larger project. Furthermore, sponsors do not justify sufficiently why this project is critical and how it fits into and relates to other projects. At a regional scale, it is not clear why this project should continue. How is this used and related to other projects? Does this project have application beyond this site? Can this approach be applied some other places at low cost?

Besides the usefulness of the method in this particular case, the method may have potential application elsewhere. A key factor would be to develop the ability to see redds in places not easily accessible. The project should not only emphasize current usage of the method but look for ways to improve the method so that the application could be more widespread. The project history was brief, with little development of past findings. The budget seems reasonable given the scope and potential value of the work.