Version and Date September 21, 2006
Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study
Statement of Work and Budget FY2007

BPA Project Number:  2003-009-00
BPA Project Title: Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study
FY05 Contract Number:  20173
FY06 CR #CR-78324
Contract Title: PI 2003-009-00 Canada-USA Shelf Salmon Survival Study  
Performance/Budget Period: October 1, 2006 to September 30, 2007
NEPA:  None required

The primary objective of this research is to assess the effects of ocean conditions on the production of Columbia River Basin salmon.  The information generated in this study is intended to map the ocean conditions that determine the growth and survival of Pacific salmon along the west coast of North America from southern British Columbia to southeast Alaska, and to identify which stocks of Columbia River salmon forage in these areas.  Documenting the extent of changes in growth, along with changes in physical features of the ocean will help to improve our understanding of how climatic events in the ocean can impact important fish resources.  More specifically, the samples collected in this study will provide an assessment of whether different stock groups (including ESA listed stocks) predominate in regions of poor growth and survival.  This research will also provide baseline data that can be used to forecast the size of Columbia River salmon runs.

The working hypothesis of this research is that the marine survival of salmon is mediated by the effects of ocean conditions on salmon growth during their first year at sea.  In particular, salmon experiencing faster growth are expected to have lower mortality.  Similarly, salmon that accumulate higher energy and lipid reserves prior to the onset of winter are expected to exhibit lower overwinter mortality than those in poor conditions.  In the marine environment, the bioenergetics processes regulating salmon growth may vary in relation to changes in temperature, ocean productivity, and prey community structure, and may be affected by changes in ocean circulation and climate.  More specifically, large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation may affect ocean productivity through changes in mixed-layer depth, horizontal transport of nutrients, and upwelling, while prey community composition may vary in response to changes in horizontal transport.

The objectives of this research will be achieved by (1) collecting juvenile salmon and oceanographic data from the west coast of Vancouver Island to southeast Alaska during spring/summer, fall, and winter, (2) assessing the growth and feeding conditions of juvenile salmon collected from these areas, (3) assessing the ocean productivity of these areas, and (4) reconstructing the migration of specific stocks using DNA analyses. These areas are frequently utilized by juvenile Chinook and coho salmon from the Columbia River during their first years in the ocean. To obtain a broader perspective of the effects of ocean conditions on juvenile salmon, this research will be coordinated with concomitant sampling programs conducted by NMFS from California to Washington and in Alaska. The results of this research will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and data reports, and will be presented at national and international conferences.

The work element for this project fall into 5 different objectives:

Objective 1 - Monitoring
WE A: Collect/Genera/Validate Field and Lab Data - Ocean Surveys of Marine Conditions and Juvenile Salmon
WE B: Collect/Genera/Validate Field and Lab Data - Oceanography
WE C: Collect/Genera/Validate Field and Lab Data - Biological Attributes of Juvenile Salmon

Objective 2 - Data analysis
WE D: Analyze/Interpret Data - Nutrient Limitations
WE E: Analyze/Interpret Data - Ocean Ecology of Salmon
WE F: Analyze/Interpret Data - Marine Mortality of Salmon

Objective 3 - Communication and Publication
WE G: Disseminate Raw and Summary Data - Data Reports
WE H: Produce/Submit Scientific Report Findings - Primary Publications

Objective 4 - Coordination
WE I: Coordination - USA-Canada Collaboration

Objective 5 - Administrative
WE J: Produce Status Report - Quarterly Reports via Pisces
WE K: Produce Annual Report - Annual Report
WE L: Manage and Administer Projects - Prepare New SOW for FY08