This Statement of Work covers the continuation of the research project entitled "Evaluating relative reproductive success of natural- and hatchery-origin Snake River fall Chinook spawners upstream of Lower Granite Dam".  A goal for previous work on this project has been to determine whether genetic variation between wild and hatchery origin Snake River fall Chinook spawner populations is large enough to allow accurate estimates of their relative contributions to natural production, and if so, to estimate wild and hatchery contributions to annual samples of natural origin fall Chinook.  Results since 2005 showed that in most brood years wild-produced fall Chinook were significantly different genetically from Lyons Ferry Hatchery broodstocks.  We expect the genetic profile of a wild-origin brood year sample to reflect contributions of hatchery and wild stocks in proportions that occurred in the parent naturally spawning population if relative reproductive success is similar.  We assume that annual hatchery and wild proportions in the spawner population are the same as those estimated in fall Chinook intercepted and sampled at Lower Granite Dam. The goal of the analytical work is to evaluate whether hatchery-origin fall Chinook are affecting productivity and recovery of the ESA-listed Snake River population, which addresses concerns documented in Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) Biological Opinion Action 182.  For 2007 (FY07) we will be proceeding with genetic mixture analyses to estimate contributions of hatchery-origin and wild-origin fall Chinook to natural production brood years, and will conduct final sampling of wild and naturally spawning adult Chinook in the upper Snake River.

Work during funding year 2007 (FY07) will include 1) completing analytical work on previously collected samples and data, 2) collecting microsatellite DNA data for wild adult and juvenile Chinook sampled in the Snake River in the fall of 2006 and during 2007, 3) performing statistical tests and data analyses, 4) estimating stock contribution and admixture proportions, 5) interpreting results for analyses that include new samples, 6) database management, and 7) writing project reports and presenting study results to managers and scientists at meetings or conferences.  USFWS project cooperators will conduct sampling activities in 2007.

We have already collected DNA genetic data for a time series of annual wild fall Chinook juvenile samples that includes brood years that vary widely in potential contributions of hatchery-origin fish.  We have sampled and genetically analyzed unmarked (potentially wild-origin) adults at Lower Granite Dam in recent years in order to 1) get samples of surviving adults from natural spawning in brood years two to five years previously, and 2) to sample potential parents of current brood year.  In 2004, management practices for hatchery production changed, and state, tribal and federal agencies agreed that wild Chinook could be used in Lyons Ferry Hatchery (LFH) broodstocks.  In order to acquire wild-origin adults it was agreed that Chinook intercepted at Lower Granite Dam, transported to LFH, and determined by lack of marks and scale pattern analysis to be wild-origin would be used as hatchery spawners.  Thus, wild-origin adults trapped at Lower Granite Dam were not all passed upstream and our samples of trapped, but removed, fish did not contain potential naturally spawning parents.  Because of this, we began sampling adults on upper Snake River spawning grounds in fall 2005 and 2007 will be our final year for this sampling.  We discontinued project sampling at Lower Granite Dam in 2006.  Field work for spawning ground sampling will be carried out by U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) staff and other cooperators, and conducted under a separate, but companion contract.