BPA Climate Change Project (May 15, 2025 - May 14, 2026)

Project Summary

For the period May 15, 2025 - May 14, 2026, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC) staff will continue to collaborate with the tribes, federal and state agencies, university staff and other regional entities in identifying climate change impacts to the First Foods of the CRITFC member tribes (Umatilla, New Perce, Yakama Nation and Warm Springs), and assisting with the development of adaptation responses to these impacts. This includes contributions to increase the scientific robustness of ongoing climate change studies in the Columbia River Basin. This project will continue to evaluate and use the most current climate scenarios available for the region, in order to best inform adaptation planning. See the attached Gantt Chart for a list of planned tasks and their timelines.

Project objectives for the new project period will include the following:

1) Estimate Changes in Mainstem Hydrology, Water Quality and Aquatic First Foods Due to Climate Change Impacts

Staff will continue to assess and develop adaptation strategies for changes to seasonal water quantity, water quality, and native fish populations in the Columbia and Snake River mainstems under future climate change scenarios.  Work tasks will include: (i) collaboration with regional entities to share climate impact and adaptation information; (ii) formulation of base case and ecosystem case scenarios based on Modified Flows-Like (MFL) and volume forecast datasets in the  Columbia River Operational Model (CROM) (using the OASIS platform) to evaluate climate change impacts on future (2020–2049 and 2060–2089) Columbia River operations; (iii) implementation of CROM outputs from base and ecosystem case climate change scenarios in the  PLEXOS model (in collaboration with National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)) with the goal of integrated future energy and water modelling throughout the Columbia River Mainstem; (iv) use of CROM outputs in additional models developed by NREL and other organizations as appropriate (such as demand-side grid and the ReEDS capacity expansion model; (v)  application of management scenario, hydro-regulation, and energy outputs developed using the CRITFC CROM,  NREL PLEXOS models, and other additional models mentioned just above with several concurrent regional models of water temperature, fish survival, and fish habitat; (vi) compare and contrast base case and ecosystem case scenarios with the ecosystem and hydropower scenarios developed as part of the ongoing Columbia River Treaty (CRT) negotiation process; (vii)  development of sub-model metrics from these regional model simulations;  (viii)  integration of updated climate change/hydrological data from regional entities when available into the CRITFC hydro-regulation program for future simulations.

In addition to CROM-based modeling, staff will develop a SCHISM-based 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Bonneville pool, with high resolution at tributary deltas, initially focusing on the Klickitat River delta. This model will support more detailed evaluation of water quality and hydrologic processes at the mainstem-tributary interface.


2)  Assess Climate Change Impacts on Tributary Hydrology, Water Quality, Habitats, and Native Aquatic Species

Staff will continue to assess climate change impacts in tributary systems and develop adaptation responses to these impacts. Focus will be on evaluating the current and future (climate-changed influenced) conditions of the tributary watersheds that support cold water refuges in Zone 6 of the mainstem Columbia River (between Bonneville and McNary dams). Staff will participate in Resilient Columbia River Basin Agreement workgroups to identify and prioritize projects to cool river temperature of tributaries that provide cold water refuge to migrating salmon and steelhead as identified in the 2021 EPA Cold Water Refuge Plan.

In addition, staff will  implement the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to several primary cold-water refuges within Zone 6 other than the Klickitat River Basin (since we recently completed implementation of the model in the KRB).  This will provide a matrix of best habitat and migratory conditions in the cold-water refuges based on their sediment yield and transport trends. Furthermore, we will also brainstorm about implementation of climate change flows (representing future discharge levels) for several primary cold-water refuges in the SWAT model.

Staff will also - operationalize  the Thermal History of Regulated Rivers (THORR) tool (developed at the University of Washington) to provide estimates of surface water temperatures throughout Columbia Basin reservoirs and significant tributaries.

Staff will support the efforts of the CRITFC project "Tribal Pacific Lamprey Restoration Plan" by providing G.I.S. and data analysis support of lamprey restoration with consideration of climate change effects (primarily seasonal freshwater flow and water temperature).

3) Assess Climate Change Impacts on Aquatic First Foods in the Pacific Ocean and Columbia Estuary Conditions

Staff will continue to develop the CRITFC Coastal Margin Observation and Prediction CMOP SCHISM hydrodynamic modeling of the estuary and near-ocean as it relates to climate change. This will include work on the following objectives: 1) making improvements to the CMOP SCHISM model to better represent tidal wetlands, through the incorporation of minor tributaries, increased resolution in tidal wetlands, inclusion and calibration of the submerged aquatic vegetation sub-model within SCHISM, and development of new metrics for evaluating ecosystem impacts on juvenile salmon and lamprey; 2) developing a SCHISM-based model of climate change impacts on salmon and lamprey in the Columbia River estuary and coastal ocean, including evaluating climate change scenarios for i) sea-level rise, ii) climate model derived atmospheric and ocean boundary forcing, iii) RBM-10 river temperatures, and iv) Bonneville River discharge under baseline and ecosystem function scenarios; 3) developing a SCHISM model incorporating pre-development bathymetry and topography of the Columbia River estuary, run under historical conditions, pre-development conditions, and the climate change scenarios described above. This model will provide a point of comparison of loss of ecosystem function due to late 19th and 20th century development of the estuary versus loss of function under climate change and provide a maximal estimate of potential mitigation of climate change effects through habitat restoration in the estuary.

Staff will disseminate raw and summary data and results of estuary and ocean climate change impacts through the CRITFC and regional (NANOOS) websites, through regional and national scientific and management forums, and through peer reviewed publications. Distribution of information through the CRITFC web site will include updates and extensions of the CMOP Climatological Atlas.

Staff will support production and curation of climate-grade observations of hypoxia and ocean acidification in the Columbia River estuary to monitor climate change impacts on ocean and estuary conditions.

4) Provide Technical Assistance and Data to our Tribes for their Climate Change Adaptation Efforts

Staff will continue to provide technical assistance and data to CRITFC tribes for their climate change adaptation efforts. Specific activities to achieve this objective during this period will include (i)Integrating results from mainstem and tributary analyses into tribal restoration planning.; (ii) Maintaining and enhancing the CRITFC Climate Change Scientific Resources website; (iii) Continuing collaboration with the Upper Snake River Tribes on the development of a climate action resilience database to assist tribal climate adaptation, and (iv) Providing technical assistance with climate change adaptation efforts as requested by tribal staff and leaders.

Staff will continue to monitor and update assessment of regional needs and opportunities for collaborative research and analyses in climate change. Where possible, seek collaboration with the government agencies that are addressing climate change and natural resource impacts (USGS, USFWS, NW Power and Conservation Council, Corps of Engineers, BPA, Bureau of Reclamation, state agencies and academic institutions) to obtain the best updated climate information in order to apply this information to tribal and other regional climate adaptation plans, resiliency actions and research and modeling.

Staff will continue to be actively involved in the Columbia River Delta Assessment initiated by the Yakama Nation (in coordination with CRITFC and its other member tribes) and US Army Corps of Engineers. The goal of the study is to assess changes in sedimentation and its impact on salmonids and Pacific Lamprey at the confluences of the Klickitat, White Salmon and Wind River tributaries.  

We will coordinate with tribal leaders and staff to assess and communicate the effects of regional Data Centers (current and proposed) on Columbia River resources, including hydropower and water demand, downstream water quality, and the restoration of native fish stocks.

5) Participate and Contribute to Regional Climate Change-focused Processes, Including Technical and Policy Coordination

Staff will continue to communicate and coordinate and provide technical and policy review for regional climate change-focused efforts with CRITFC’s member tribes and other regional stakeholders (federal, state, local, and academic programs). Specific activities to achieve this objective during this period will include participating in regional climate meetings such as the Columbia River Forecast Group, Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI), and the PNW Climate Science Conference. Staff will continue to serve as a board member on regional climate groups (Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, ATNI Climate workgroup, Terradapt’s Salmon Health Module Advisory Group). Staff will participate in national tribal efforts in the development of a tribal climate strategy. CRITFC staff will work with Tribes, EPA, Oregon, Washington, NOAA, and State Agencies staff to identify cold water refuges currently available and potentially available for use by migrating salmon, assess the sufficiency of the refuges, and identify strategies to restore, enhance, and protect high quality refuge areas for the future. CRITFC staff will continue to serve on water quality attainment plan workgroups and coordinate with the Environmental Protection Agency, the US Army Corps of Engineers, the Washington Department of Ecology, Bureau of Reclamation, and Oregon Department of Environmental Quality on the implementation of the Columbia/Lower Snake Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for temperature and National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits for heat load release at federal dams.

Staff will collaborate with NOAA NMFS (Climate Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative) CEFI program staff to align climate scenarios across CEFI ocean modeling and CRITFC estuary and river modeling to allow intercomparison and will explore sharing of CRITFC generated river and estuary outputs as CEFI ocean model forcings, and CEFI generated regional downscaled climate ocean and atmospheric models as CRITFC estuary model inputs.