PROJECT OVERVIEW

Snake River Fall Chinook salmon are known to exhibit two types of juvenile life history:  an “ocean-type” life history in which juveniles enter saltwater as subyearlings, and a “reservoir-type” life history in which juveniles overwinter in the reservoirs and enter seawater as yearlings.  The variable life history of juvenile fall Chinook salmon may introduce bias into estimates of smolt-to-adult return (SAR) ratios and transport-inriver (T/I) ratios.  The size and nature of the bias are unclear, due to uncertainties about the proportion of fall Chinook salmon that are destined to be reservoir-type, where reservoir-type fish cease seaward movement as subyearlings, the extent of seaward movement when the fish bypass systems and monitoring at dams are not operational, and the survival of reservoir-type fish both in the reservoirs and in the ocean.  Our mission is to gauge the proportion of the fall Chinook salmon population that exhibit the reservoir-type life history in various portions of the hydrosystem.  

The University of Washington’s contribution to this project is to provide statistical support to estimate the abundance and/or proportions of fish adopting the reservoir-type life history during different periods of the outmigration season and in several parts of the hydrosystem.  We will assist in developing the experimental design for the hydroacoustic studies, and in analyzing the resulting hydroacoustic data.  



PROJECT GOAL

Provide statistical support to tagging study of juvenile life history of Snake River fall Chinook salmon, Project 2002-032-00 in association with BPA contract requisition numbers CR-124902, CR-124660, and CR-124661.


PROJECT OBJECTIVES

1. Develop RM&E Method and Designs – Develop a statistical plan for estimating abundance of subyearling fall Chinook salmon and residence time from hydroacoustic data.  The statistical synopsis will describe the hydroacoustic sampling design, net sampling design, parameter estimators and variance estimators, assumptions, and sample size calculations.  The purpose of the synopsis is to assure that all study objectives can be accomplished validly and efficiently.  The synopsis will serve as guidance during data analysis.

2. Develop RM&E Method and Designs – Provide statistical guidance in planning for the study for FY 2011-2013.  In collaboration with US Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), select appropriate goals and study methods based upon results from FY 2007-2010.  Develop statistical synopsis for FY 2011, built  upon existing statistical synopses and reflecting changes in study design and additional goals and tasks.  The updated statistical synopsis for FY2011 will describe the sampling design, parameter estimators and variance estimators, and sample size calculations.

3. Analyze/Interpret Data – Assist PNNL and USGS in updated analysis of the 2009 radio-tag (RT) and acoustic-tag (AT) data generated by Project 2002-032-00.  Compare juvenile fall Chinook salmon migration behavior to available hydraulic data from radio and acoustic tags.  Compare 2009 results to results from prior study years in Project 2002-032-00.

4.  Analyze/Interpret Data – Assist in analyzing the 2010 hydroacoustic and net sampling data to estimate reservoir abundance of fall Chinook salmon through time.  Assist in analyzing the 2010 hydroacoustic data to estimate residence time.

5. Reporting – Begin preparing written descriptions of statistical analyses performed in 2010 for the annual project report.  These portions will include sections on statistical methods, results, discussion, and literature cited, as well as tables and figures.  

6. Manage and Administer Project – Perform administrative responsibilities required for compliance with BPA program requirements including metric reporting, financial reporting (accruals), and development of annual statements of work.

7.  Produce Pisces Status Reports – Report on the status of milestones and deliverables in Pisces.