Project Goals
: : Dec 1, 2009 - Nov 30, 2010


From 2006 to 2009 Kintama Research has developed an acoustic telemetry array technology to perform direct measurements of i) the marine survival of Columbia River spring Chinook salmon smolts as compared to their in-river (IR) survival, and ii) the relative survival of IR and transported Snake & Yakima spring Chinook smolts.  The results have generally been consistent in their findings concerning the validity of the so-called differential and delayed mortality theories for yearling spring Chinook greater than 130 mm in fork length (with the exception of the 2007 study, when confounding factors compromised the results). Results from these studies raise questions concerning the relative importance of ocean survival vis-à-vis hydrosystem IR survival.  

In assessing the value of Kintama’s results, a number of critical uncertainties have been suggested that merit study and analyses over the period of this contract and beyond.

1. Is the reported ocean mortality an artifact of tag effects and smolt exposure to saltwater.  That is, while Kintama has shown in its past work that there is insignificant tag loss or mortality amongst control populations maintained in fresh water, the question remains if exposure to salt water results in either acute or chronic effects associated with the tag burden that would impact on the ocean survival analysis.
2. Kintama’s coastal ocean arrays extend to the edge of the coastal shelf because Chinook salmonids are understood to stay on the coastal shelf for at least the first year of their lives.  There is a question as to whether changes in ocean conditions may have led to a behavioral change in the smolts such that they may be moving off the coastal shelf in search of food and therefore are not being detected on the arrays, again impacting the ocean survival analysis.
3. Kintama has reported that its survival estimates for migrating smolts through the hydrosystem to Bonneville dam are statistically indistinguishable from those reported by NOAA using PIT tags.  To date, Kintama has not been able to cross validate its results with other studies downstream of Bonneville dam.  However, under separate studies to investigate compliance with BiOp RPAs, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has used the JSATs system to measure survival of both yearling and sub-yearling Chinook through the 8-dam hydrosystem, and downstream of Bonneville dam to the estuary mouth.  There is a question as to whether the survival estimates produced by Kintama and the USACE are compatible because Kintama releases fish over a relatively narrow part of the season as compared with the USACE which tags a much larger number of smolts throughout the season.
4. Neither Kintama nor the USACE has analyzed smolt passage history to correlate this or IR residence with survival.  Therefore, there may be valuable information that has been not been mined that has an impact on survival patterns.

To address these critical uncertainties, Kintama’s 2010 project will focus on the following goals:

1. Saltwater Challenge Experiment
Subcontract work to Oregon State University (OSU) to conduct a pilot study that will investigate any mortality or physiological differences between tagged and untagged smolts held over several months in either freshwater, or initially in freshwater for ca. 4 weeks to mimic IR passage, and then transferred to seawater.  This work will study a range of smolt sizes tagged with V6 and V7 tags, with the fish condition assessed at the outset of the experiment, and physiological assessments by depletion throughout the experiment, and pathology of mortalities.

2. NOAA and DFO Trawl Analyses
Kintama will analyze data from NOAA (US) and DFO (Canada), and any other sources of data or literature to examine the hypothesis that there has been a change in Chinook smolt behavior related to ocean conditions or food availability, and that there is evidence that a significant number of smolts now migrate off the coastal shelf earlier in their life history.

3. Delayed Mortality Study Due to IR or Hydrosystem Effects
Depending on the feasibility of cooperation with the USACE, Kintama will do one of the following.
i) Work with the USACE to tag a subset of yearling smolts with VEMCO V7 tags from the same study groups as those tagged by the USACE using JSATs tags.  Kintama’s tagged smolts will be released at the same time as specific release groups tagged by the ACOE.  Kintama will otherwise follow its standard operating procedures for fish surgery.  Details of this operation are to be worked out with the ACOE as part of this project.  A total of 1200 tagged smolts is anticipated. OR:
ii) Using approximately the same total number of smolts, tag Snake R smolts from Dworshak Hatchery at Kooskie releasing a number of batches of smolts across the range of migration timing, half of which will be transported past the hydrosystem to Bonneville, and half released at the headwaters.
iii) With a decision to be made upon guidance from BPA by March 2010, either operate the same receiver arrays as in 2009 OR:
o Redeploy the Cascade Head array to the south of the Columbia R at which only 3 early barged smolts were detected in 2009, to:
o 2 separate sub-arrays sited between the end of the jetties at Cape Disappointment and Fort Stevens State Park.  This will provide for a finer scale resolution of the survival estimates previously obtained between Kintama’s arrays at Astoria and Willapa Bay, and also provide survival estimates that will provide for a closer spatial comparison with those obtained by the ACOE downstream of Astoria.

4. Smolt Survival and Passage History
Kintama will re-analyze data from its 2006-2009 studies, querying PTAGIS with a view to uncovering any correlations between survival and passage history.

5. Analysis of Future Research Needs
Discuss future regional research needs with the USACE and BPA in order that Kintama’s ocean studies more fully complement those conducted by the USACE for hydrosystem performance and in-estuary analyses.