Project Goals
: Dec 1, 2010 - Nov 30, 2011


From 2006 to 2010 Kintama Research developed an acoustic telemetry array technology to directly estimate estuarine and early marine survival of juvenile Columbia River spring Chinook salmon. The Coastal Ocean Acoustic Salmon Tracking (COAST; formerly POST) Array uses equipment specifically designed for saltwater and coastal sea conditions, and is currently the only option for direct measurements of salmon movements and survival in the early ocean. As such, a number of BiOp RPAs cannot be directly addressed without using the data that Kintama can provide under this statement of work (SOW), including differential post-Bonneville survival of transported fish relative to in-river fish soon after ocean entry (RPAs 52.2, 55.1); mortality associated with ocean arrival timing (55.2); improved accuracy of delayed hydro effects (55.8); estuary and plume survival (58.1); and early ocean survival (61).

At present, there is insufficient information to clearly resolve several critical uncertainties or to inform management decisions. If sudden declines in ocean survival of Columbia River salmon populations were to occur, FCRPS management would currently not be able to distinguish between climate change effects in the ocean and effects caused (or influenced) by the operation of the hydrosystem.

By developing a monitoring system that can eventually seamlessly measure survival through the hydrosystem, estuary, and the first several months of the coastal ocean migration it will be possible to develop a clear understanding of: (1) where survival problems develop; (2) whether problems that develop are related to (or independent of) hydrosystem operations; and (3) what management steps could be taken that would be effective in improving Columbia River salmon survival.

For the 2011 Statement of Work, we intend to model our program of work on the Categorical Review proposal for the 2012-2014 funding cycle. This is an evolution from the work in prior years, and therefore 2011 will act as a bridging year, allowing us to address the efficacy of 1) array re-configuration, and 2) capture and tagging of smolts at dam bypasses and subsequent release at or below Bonneville Dam to estimate early marine survival and migration patterns in the ocean.
Long-Term Project Objectives
1. Document the Early Ocean Migration Patterns of Columbia River Chinook
2. Determine the Role of the Ocean in Survival of Columbia River Chinook
3. Key Factors Determining Early Ocean Survival of Columbia River Chinook
Long-Term Project Deliverables
i) Develop more detailed information on the migration paths and shelf distribution of Chinook smolts in the coastal ocean;
ii) Establish relative survival rates of Chinook stocks in the coastal ocean, the estuary, and the hydrosystem and expand these analyses of relative survival rates to encompass more years and a greater range of stocks;
iii) Examine correlations between early ocean survival and a suite of key environmental factors with the long-term goal of identifying forecasting indicators useful for FCRPS decision-makers;
iv) Test the efficacy of transportation actions for Snake River stocks. This will be a continuation of prior years’ work, but moving the tagging sites to Bonneville Dam & Lower Granite Dam instead of tagging at specific hatcheries;
v) Test the Delayed Mortality Theory. This will be a continuation of prior years’ work, but moving the tagging to Bonneville Dam, where we will tag a much more representative range of Upper Columbia and Snake River Chinook stocks. We will collect genetic stock ID samples at the time of tagging in order to subsequently identify the stock of origin for each tagged smolt.

To meet these Objectives, Kintama will build on its work from 2006 through 2010 during which we demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of a prototype acoustic array for directly measuring the movements and survival of yearling smolts greater than or equal to130mm in the coastal ocean. In doing so we have developed and published new information on migration paths and speed of specific salmon populations in the early ocean; provided information on relative survival rates within the ocean, the estuary and the hydrosystem; and performed explicit tests on the differential-delayed and delayed mortality theories using free-ranging smolts in the river and ocean. This has allowed us to move from observational science to experimental science in the ocean.

Kintama is proposing both a more focused and a more diverse approach for the upcoming funding cycle: tagging a broader range of smolts by moving the primary tagging site to Bonneville Dam (thereby sampling all upper river stocks), and using retrospective genetic stock identification to identify the specific stock of origin for each tagged animal; and operating an additional acoustic sub-array in the lower estuary or river mouth (in addition to Astoria), operating an additional acoustic sub-array on the Oregon coast (Cascade Head), and extending all coastal ocean sub-arrays to approximately 500m depth. Sub-arrays at Willapa Bay (WA), and Lippy Point (Vancouver Island, BC) will be redeployed.

A detailed power analysis has been carried out to examine the statistical power of different combinations of array designs and tagging numbers that meet the current funding level. Extending the offshore extent of the array to 500m and increasing the number of sub-array locations by 2 (near the river mouth, Cascade Head) generates greater biological and statistical information than does increasing the tag sample size. Our conclusion was that the number of tagged fish should be reduced to minimum 800 per year from recent levels (1,000~1,600 tags depending upon year) in order to provide the most informative study design under the funding available.

This study design will be monitored on an ongoing basis in consultation with BPA. Adjustments will be made to the study design (e.g., the offshore extent of the coastal sub-arrays) as appropriate to ensure that the deliverables are achieved during the course of the project.