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Project Summary

Project 1989-107-00 - Statistical Support For Salmon
Project Number:
1989-107-00
Title:
Statistical Support For Salmon
Summary:
PROJECT OVERVIEW

This Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) funded project was initiated to develop the statistical theory, methods, and statistical software to design and analyze PIT-tag survival studies. This project developed the initial study designs for the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) /University of Washington (UW) Snake River survival studies of 1993–present. Since then, survival investigations have been extended to the use of balloon, radio, and acoustic tags. Survival investigations now include route-specific survival at hydro projects, partitioning project survival into pool and dam components, relating smolt survival to river conditions and dam operations, and the estimation of upriver adult survival. This project continues to respond to the changing needs of the scientific community in the Pacific Northwest as they face new challenges to extract life-history data from an increasing variety of fish-tagging studies. The project's mission is to help assure tagging studies are designed and analyzed from the onset to extract the best available information using state-of-the-art statistical methods. In so doing, investigators can focus on the management implications of their findings and not become distracted by concerns whether the studies design and analyses are correct or not.

To accomplish this project's mission, the project provides quantitative support to the fisheries community from study design through data analysis and interpretation. Starting from first principles, statistical methods are tailored specifically for the intent of the tagging study objectives. From the onset, investigators therefore know exactly what information can and cannot be extracted and what model assumptions must be met for a valid study. By tailoring the statistical models to the specific purpose of the study, maximum precision is also obtained.

The project also develops interactive statistical software to allow investigators to easily and competently analyze tagging data. Program SURPH was developed to analyze juvenile PIT-tag data; Program USER, to analyze radio- and acoustic-tag studies; Program ROSTER, to analyze joint juvenile and adult PIT-tag detections; and Program PitPro, to easily and correctly extract detection histories from the PTAGIS data base for the analysis of adult and juvenile survival and transportation studies. Technical support is provided to investigators through instruction, consultation, and assistance in the design and analysis of complex datasets. Program SampleSize was developed to assist investigators in the design of single-release, paired-release, transport-inriver, and balloon-tag survival studies. Each year, this project assists investigators in the design and analysis of over 20 major tagging studies conducted by state and federal agencies, public utility districts, and tribal organizations in the Columbia Basin.

Tagging studies within the Columbia Basin have become extensive, with tens of millions of CWT, over a million PIT tags, tens of thousands of radio tags, and thousands of acoustic tags used annually to obtain life-history information on salmonid stocks. Yet, this BPA-funded project is the only project dedicated to providing statistical support for their design and analysis. This project helps assure cost-effective tagging studies, valid analysis of the data, and proper interpretation of results to best manage water and salmonid resources. Because evaluation of mitigation projects and system recovery rely on performance measures from tagging studies, reliable study designs and data analysis are crucial to the Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP).


PROJECT GOAL

Ensure that salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia Basin are conducted with the best available design and analysis, including sample size guidance, state-of-the-art statistical software, and consultation in order to provide cost-effective and precise research, monitoring, and evaluation studies.
Proposer:
None
Proponent Orgs:
University of Washington (Edu)
Starting FY:
1990
Ending FY:
2018
Stage:
Implementation - Project Status Report
Area:
Province Subbasin %
Basinwide - 100.00%
Purpose:
Programmatic
Emphasis:
RM and E
Focal Species:
All Anadromous Salmonids
Chinook - All Populations
Chum - Columbia River ESU (threatened)
Coho - Lower Columbia River ESU (threatened)
Coho - Unspecified Population
Sockeye - All Populations
Steelhead - All Populations
Wildlife
Species Benefit:
Anadromous: 100.0%   Resident: 0.0%   Wildlife: 0.0%
Special:
None

No photos have been uploaded yet for this project.

Summary of Budgets

To view all expenditures for all fiscal years, click "Project Exp. by FY"

Expense SOY Budget Working Budget Contracted Amount Modified Contract Amount Expenditures *
FY2016 (Previous) $232,374 $232,374 $232,374 $232,374 $182,896

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $232,374 $232,374 $232,374 $182,896
FY2017 (Current) $232,374 $232,374 $232,374 $232,374 $217,444

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $232,374 $232,374 $232,374 $217,444
FY2018 (Next) $232,374 $232,374 $0 $0 $0

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $232,374 $0 $0 $0

* Expenditures data includes accruals and are based on data through 30-Jun-2017

Decided Budget Transfers  (FY2016 - FY2018)

Acct FY Acct Type Amount Fund Budget Decision Date
FY2016 Expense $232,374 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY16 Initial Planning Budgets - Expense 05/22/2015
FY2017 Expense $232,374 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY17 SOY Budgets 06/02/2016
FY2018 Expense $232,374 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY18 SOY Budgets 07/17/2017

Pending Budget Decision?  No


Project Cost Share:

FY2016 0 %
FY2015 29 %
FY2014 51 %
FY2013 38 %
FY2012 49 %
FY2011 47 %
FY2010 55 %
FY2009 22 %
FY2008 21 %
FY2007 3 %
Fiscal Year Cost Share Partner Total Proposed
Contribution
Total Confirmed
Contribution
FY2015 University of Washington $58,886
FY2015 US Army Corps of Engineers (COE) $38,000

Contracts

The table below contains contracts with the following statuses: Active, Complete, History, Issued.
Expense Contracts:
Number Contractor Name Title Status Contracted Amount Dates
74580 SOW University of Washington 1989-107-00 EXP STATISTICAL SUPP SALMONID SURVIVAL STUDIES Issued $232,374 12/1/2016 - 11/30/2017



Annual Progress Reports
Expected (since FY2004):13
Completed:13
On time:13
Status Reports
Completed:47
On time:27
Avg Days Late:10

Earliest Subsequent           Accepted Count of Contract Deliverables
Contract Contract(s) Title Contractor Start End Status Reports Complete Green Yellow Red Total % Green and Complete Canceled
4126 12494, 25091, 29651, 35149, 39987, 44410, 50065, 55454, 59002, 63491, 67518, 70916, 74580 1989-107-00 STATISTICAL SUPP FOR SALMONID SURVIVAL STUDIES University of Washington 03/2001 03/2001 Issued 47 68 4 0 1 73 98.63% 0
Project Totals 47 68 4 0 1 73 98.63% 0


Review: RME / AP Category Review

2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Assessment

Assessment Number: 1989-107-00-BIOP-20101105
Project Number: 1989-107-00
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-1989-107-00
Completed Date: None
2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Rating: Response Requested
Comments: BiOp Workgroup Comments: The project needs more specificity for IMW statistical design support. As well as clarification on specifics for support of RPA 71.3

The BiOp RM&E Workgroups made the following determinations regarding the proposal's ability or need to support BiOp Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) RPAs. If you have questions regarding these RPA association conclusions, please contact your BPA COTR and they will help clarify, or they will arrange further discussion with the appropriate RM&E Workgroup Leads. BiOp RPA associations for the proposed work are: (50.3 51.2 51.3 52.1 52.2 52.3 52.6 54.1 54.2 54.4 54.7 55.1 55.3 55.4 55.8 55.9 58.3 60.2 61.3 )
All Questionable RPA Associations (71.3) and
All Deleted RPA Associations ( 50.4 71.2 )
Proponent Response:

We appreciate that the BiOp RM&E workgroup concurred with us on 19 RPA associations for this project.  We agree with their proposed deletion of two RPA associations, RPAs 50.4 and 71.2.  However, we would like to provide additional support for our continued association with RPA 71.3. 

  • RPA 71.3, Supporting the standardization and coordination of tagging and monitoring effects through participation and leadership in regional coordination forums such as PNAMP.

It is our goal to raise the quantitative rigor of tagging studies in the FWP.  One of the ways in which we do this is by participating in the regional coordination forums such as the RM&E Hydro workgroup, the regional PIT-tag planning workgroup, and PNAMP. 

This project participated in 2010 in the collaborative effort to produce Chapter 3, Guidelines for Conducting Smolt Survival Studies in the Columbia River, in PNAMP’s Tagging, Telemetry, and Marking Measures for Monitoring Fish Populations Compendium (TTM).  This project also assisted in PNAMP website development efforts and participated in the Data Sharing Workshop to Support Coordinate Assessments on 10/5/2010. This project will continue to promote and participate in efforts to standardize and improve existing tagging studies.

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 1989-107-00-ISRP-20101015
Project: 1989-107-00 - Statistical Support For Salmon
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-1989-107-00
Completed Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
The statistical services and products provided by this project make a major contribution to fish-tagging studies by state, federal, tribal, and academic entities throughout the region. The project has provided continuity of statistical support for both as-needed and anticipated needs to multiple parties in the region. The statistical software developed by project personnel is used throughout the region. The proposal identifies project support for four management questions posed by the Council in the MERR plan.

The proposal provides good detail on the technical background and objectives. Results are quantifiable through the impressive number of peer-reviewed papers, technical reports, theses completed, and software programs developed. However, some claims are made in the proposal without sufficient information for evaluation, such as, claiming that the approach used has proven to be the best way without providing documentation, or stating that particular software developed through the program is being used by numerous investigators and agencies without providing a real sense of amount of use or user satisfaction. Methods to evaluate client satisfaction such as summarizing course evaluations, Wiki use levels, timeliness of response to queries and requests for assistance should be identified during contracting.
First Round ISRP Date: 10/18/2010
First Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
First Round ISRP Comment:
The statistical services and products provided by this project make a major contribution to fish-tagging studies by state, federal, tribal, and academic entities throughout the region. The project has provided continuity of statistical support for both as-needed and anticipated needs to multiple parties in the region. The statistical software developed by project personnel is used throughout the region. The proposal identifies project support for four management questions posed by the Council in the MERR plan.

The proposal provides good detail on the technical background and objectives. Results are quantifiable through the impressive number of peer-reviewed papers, technical reports, theses completed, and software programs developed. However, some claims are made in the proposal without sufficient information for evaluation, such as, claiming that the approach used has proven to be the best way without providing documentation, or stating that particular software developed through the program is being used by numerous investigators and agencies without providing a real sense of amount of use or user satisfaction. Methods to evaluate client satisfaction such as summarizing course evaluations, Wiki use levels, timeliness of response to queries and requests for assistance should be identified during contracting.
Documentation Links:

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 1989-107-00-NPCC-20110128
Project: 1989-107-00 - Statistical Support For Salmon
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal: RMECAT-1989-107-00
Proposal State: Pending BPA Response
Approved Date: 6/10/2011
Recommendation: Fund
Comments: Implement through FY 2016.
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review

Legal Assessment (In-Lieu)

Assessment Number: 1989-107-00-INLIEU-20090521
Project Number: 1989-107-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 10/6/2006
In Lieu Rating: Problems Exist
Cost Share Rating: None
Comment: Statistical support provided to fishery investigators through ought the basin, on request; fishery managers, others, authorized/required. Needs cost share or other remedy. Upon review, BPA concludes that the rating could be changed to a "1" if BPA funding were focused on support of either fish and wildlife program or AFEP research or monitoring.

Capital Assessment

Assessment Number: 1989-107-00-CAPITAL-20090618
Project Number: 1989-107-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 2/27/2007
Capital Rating: Does Not Qualify for Capital Funding
Capital Asset Category: None
Comment: None

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 1989-107-00-ISRP-20060831
Project: 1989-107-00 - Statistical Support For Salmon
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 8/31/2006
Final Round ISRP Date: None
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
This is an excellent proposal that clearly describes an important and useful ongoing project. The relationship of this project to other projects is clearly summarized. The proposal provides a list of organizations that have been provided statistical support from this project

The methods are based on sound scientific principles. The project history section of the proposal provides a very impressive and significant list of contributions that this project has accomplished. The results have been reported to the region via a large number of technical reports and peer reviewed papers. There is an impressive history of peer-reviewed publications related to the past activities of the sponsors. Past performance indicates that facilities and personnel are very well qualified.

The evaluation of the success for most of the project activities is stated in terms of method development, computer program development, hours of consulting provided, and number and quality of journals for publications. Lacking is consulting client satisfaction survey information. Although the consulting load and presumable return of clients provides indirect evidence of satisfaction, there may be valuable information for improving quality that may be obtained by surveying all clients, not only those who return regularly. Sponsors should conduct a survey of consulting clients to obtain evidence of satisfaction and to provide information for quality improvement in the future and report the results of this survey in future proposals.
Documentation Links:

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 1989-107-00-NPCC-20090924
Project: 1989-107-00 - Statistical Support For Salmon
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Approved Date: 10/23/2006
Recommendation: Fund
Comments:

Project Relationships: None

Name Role Organization
Richard Townsend Technical Contact University of Washington
John Skalski Project Lead University of Washington
Cindy Helfrich Administrative Contact University of Washington
Jessica Roshan Supervisor University of Washington
Rebecca Buchanan (Inactive) Interested Party University of Washington
Jeff Stier Supervisor Bonneville Power Administration
Christine Petersen Project Manager Bonneville Power Administration