Comment:

This proposal and project are models for how other projects could be described and conducted.

1. Objectives, Significance to Regional Programs, and Technical Background

This proposal clearly describes statistical analysis of fish tagging data and data from monitoring and evaluation projects that are critical for making management decisions for the Columbia River hydrosystem. The proposal clearly describes what analyses and results will be produced each year, as well as the type of other studies anticipated to aid in monitoring and evaluation. Overall, the objectives, significance, and technical background are clearly presented.

This project is important for regional programs that need to have the best available science for protecting, mitigating, and enhancing fish and wildlife management of the hydropower projects. This project helps address critical uncertainties such as how hydrosystem operations could be changed to benefit fish. The success of spill augmentation to enhance smolt outmigration depends on knowing smolt run timing in real time.

Monitoring methods developed by this project focus on collecting and using non-tagging data to make management decisions. The proposal clearly differentiates the focus of this project from that of project 1989-107-00, Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies, that involves the design and analysis of tagging studies. Both projects emphasize that for data to be useful it must be both accurate and precise.

The Fish and Wildlife Program calls for status and trend monitoring for the hydrosystem, tributaries, estuary, and harvest. Dissemination of monitoring information is important and dissemination of in-season data via the internet is an effective way of providing access to useful data for management decisions. Forecasts of run timing are posted on the UW DART website.

BPA has requested that this project provide information to support BPA's ability to make independent decisions. The analytical support and technical skills provided by this project are highly useful.

2. Results and Adaptive Management

This project clearly met its objectives to provide real-time monitoring of smolt outmigration by stock and location for hundreds of stocks, and estimates of juvenile and adult survival needed to assess fish passage and life-cycle information for many salmonid stocks. The project also meets the objectives of increasing the rigor of sampling and analysis for monitoring and evaluation projects throughout the Columbia River Basin and of providing the best available scientific information on which management decisions, including adaptive management, depend. The lessons learned and results provided are broadly applicable inside and outside the Basin, and are routinely used to fine-tune or even alter management policies. Results are shared widely through easily accessible and easily understood websites. Evidence about the impact of the availability of results should be provided in future reports and publications.

Predictive performance of smolt migration is generally good; however, questions arise such as how could predictive performance be made better? Is the current performance adequate, inadequate, or better than needed for managing spill augmentation?

The project has an excellent record of producing peer reviewed publications. The project proponents note in the proposal that collaboration with field investigators has resulted in the joint publication of 28 journal articles and 82 technical reports over the life of this project.

3. Methods: Project Relationships, Work Types, and Deliverables

The proposal clearly describes the activities conducted and planned, and it has met its objectives. The proposal describes the research products produced, and the proponents have an excellent track record of producing peer-reviewed publications of the highest quality, in addition to timely technical reports and real-time information disseminated via websites.

This project uses statistical methods developed by Project 1989-107-00 for analyzing tagging data to produce status and trend performance measures. This project generates analyses of historical tagging data that is used in Project 1989-107-00 to improve the design and analysis of tagging studies. This project uses data from Project 1990-080-00 (PTAGIS) for PIT-tag data and from Project 1982-013-01 for CWT data.

The work type for this project is 100% RM&E and Data Management. Deliverables are closely aligned with the four main objectives of the project.

The proposal and presentation clearly indicate the overall benefit of this project to the Fish and Wildlife program. This project continues to be valuable in providing statistical support services to many other projects in the region. The proposal effectively relates the project to the 2008 BiOp via many RPAs, the Accords, the Fish and Wildlife Program, and the MERR plan. The technical background section clearly presents how project output addresses regional monitoring needs and data analysis requirements. Objectives are clearly stated in terms of desired outcomes relative to status and trends of listed salmonid populations. The proposal provides an excellent history with significant accomplishments and with a very good reporting and publication record. Important accomplishments include estimation of SARs for over 350 stocks of hatchery fish and about 20 stocks of wild fish. In the past, the ISRP has recommended customer surveys for documentation of the value of services. The proponents have somewhat addressed this issue by including unsolicited letters of appreciation that expressed satisfaction. However, summary results of actual customer satisfaction surveys would still be preferred.

Project 1989-107-00 (Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies) is very different from this project  (1991-051-00) M&E Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies.  The other project has, as its mission, to develop statistical models for fish tagging studies and provide technology transfer and support to tagging investigators.  That project is not concerned with data analysis but, rather, to assure Council-funded studies are designed and have state-of-the-art statistical methods available for analysis.  This project, on the other hand, processes M&E data to calculate peformance measures, track their trends, predict smolt run timing, and provide the public with ready access to this information. 

This project provides real-time analysis to monitor smolt outmigration timing for use in water management and fish operations of the hydrosystem.  Since 1994, we have provided daily forecasts of smolt outmigration timing in real time for as many as 30 fish stocks at 5 hydroprojects to provide managers with the information necessary to optimally time spill augmentation if desired.

This project also provides value-added analyses of historical tagging data.  Since 2002, this project has routinely processed CWT and PIT-tag data to summarize fish performance and made that information publicly available on the Internet. Currently, we provide the calculation of SARs for over 350 hatchery stocks in the Basin, estimation of survival and travel times for over 25 hatchery and wild stocks over as many as 9 reaches, and the estimation of transportation effects, ocean survival (i.e., Bonneville to Bonneville), upriver adult survival, adult fallback rates at dams, and differential mortality (D) using joint juvenile and adult PIT-tag data for hatchery and wild Chinook salmon and steelhead. This project also summarizes compliance of spill, flow, and total dissolved gas levels with target goals at all major hydroprojects.

This project has a much larger scope than the comparative survival study (CSS) and Fish Passage Center (FPC) monitoring.  We use some of the same data as the CSS to calculate performance measures such as transport/inriver ratios (T/I) and D.  But we also go beyond that to estimate ocean survival, upriver adult survival, age composition, differences in upriver survival of transported and non-transported fish, etc.  We also perform the analyses differently.  While the CSS calculates T/I and D relative to the so-called C₀ fish (fish never bypassed), we compare performance between transported fish and all inriver fish passage histories.  We believe this is more meaningful to managers wanting to know if transportation was beneficial versus the alternative option of keeping fish inriver at existing river operating conditions.  These analyses are also performed to provide BPA with independent assessment capabilities. 

Finally, our status and trends monitoring also includes wide-scale analyses of the Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) flow, spill, and water quality data, and comprehensive use of the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC) RMIS and PTAGIS databases.  PSMFC restricts itself to the role of data repository.  We provide summaries and relevant performance measures so the public can inspect and monitor trends in fish performance and hydroprogram operations.