Views/Actions
Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program
RSS Feed for updates to Project 1991-051-00 - Modeling and Evaluation Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies Follow this via RSS feed. Help setting up RSS feeds?

Project Summary

Project 1991-051-00 - Modeling and Evaluation Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies
Project Number:
1991-051-00
Title:
Modeling and Evaluation Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies
Summary:
PROJECT OVERVIEW

The Pacific Northwest tags more fish and monitors fish movements more intensely than anywhere else in North America. Tens of millions of dollars are spent on fish tagging and data retrieval each year. However, there is no overriding analytical framework to the design and analyses of these studies to assure optimal performances or maximum benefits from the data. The Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (CBFWP 1994-1995) recognized these needs in their call for a regional center for conducting analyses and the development of needed analytical tools and analyses (3.2F.1). The plan also called for a coordinated information system on anadromous fish databases (3.3A.2) and the need to monitor populations, provide timely transfer of information, and develop needed monitoring technologies (4.3C.1). Despite these overwhelming needs and given the high expenditures on tagging and data collection, no agreement on a coordinated information system for anadromous fish data, methods of their analyses, or timely dissemination of information to the public has been agreed upon. This project exists to meet some of these pressing demands for sound statistical analysis of tagging data and the dissemination of that data in a timely manner in order to evaluate and monitor mitigation activities in the Columbia Basin. This program contributes to mitigation activities by providing analyses of historical and real-time tag detections in order to adapt management strategies to the most current information on salmonid migration and success. This program also assists by resolving statistical and data analysis issues, so that managers can focus on biological or resource issues rather than on data analysis uncertainties.

Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) uses the support provided by this project to accountably perform and preserve its ability to independently make decisions related to operations of the hydro system and commitment of fiscal and material federal resources for fish and wildlife mitigation programs. This project also provides critical analysis for efficient use of limited mitigation funds on both a real-time and planning horizon basis. To support real-time monitoring and information dissemination, the program provides real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing at eight Snake and Columbia River dam sites. This information is coupled with travel time information and barging projections in the Snake River Basin. Daily updates are provided for yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon, steelhead, and sockeye salmon from April through September of each year since 1994. These predictions, along with supporting information, can be retrieved and independently analyzed using interactive software and graphs on the internet (http://www.cbr.washington.edu).

This project also performs value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and modeling interrelationships without the tremendous costs of additional field studies. These life-cycle analyses are being used to characterize the status and trends of steelhead and Chinook salmon in the Columbia River Basin and examine factors influencing return success.

As provisions for handling salmonid stocks have become more restricted, the value of retrospective analyses of existing data sets becomes increasingly important. These investigations also provide needed information to perform sample size calculations and to design field investigations more precisely. The specific analyses performed each year changes as BPA information needs to shift to reflect the changing needs of the fisheries community. A series of technical publications on tag analyses is published under the contract to disseminate information learned from these added-value analyses.

This project develops statistical tools and analyses to monitor and evaluate the status and trends of salmonid stocks and the hydro system. Performance measures compiled include adult return counts, harvest numbers, SARs, smolt outmigration and travel times, stream escapement, transport–inriver ratios, ocean survival (i.e., Bonneville to Bonneville Dam), upriver adult survival, and compliance with flow, temperature, and dissolved gas targets. This project is reporting the information and developing analysis tools to assist the public and agencies in independently assessing the status of recovery in the Basin. The information and statistical tools to examine the status and trends of performance measures are placed in the DART database managed by the University of Washington for public dissemination.
Proposer:
None
Proponent Orgs:
University of Washington (Edu)
Starting FY:
2004
Ending FY:
2020
Stage:
Implementation - Project Status Report
Area:
Province Subbasin %
Basinwide - 100.00%
Purpose:
Programmatic
Emphasis:
RM and E
Focal Species:
All Anadromous Salmonids
Chinook - All Populations
Chum - Columbia River ESU (threatened)
Coho - Lower Columbia River ESU (threatened)
Coho - Unspecified Population
Sockeye - All Populations
Steelhead - All Populations
Wildlife
Species Benefit:
Anadromous: 100.0%   Resident: 0.0%   Wildlife: 0.0%
Special:
None

No photos have been uploaded yet for this project.

Summary of Budgets

To view all expenditures for all fiscal years, click "Project Exp. by FY"

Expense SOY Budget Working Budget Contracted Amount Modified Contract Amount Expenditures *
FY2016 (Previous) $423,643 $423,643 $423,643 $423,643 $438,072

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $423,643 $423,643 $423,643 $438,072
FY2017 (Current) $423,643 $423,643 $423,643 $423,643 $442,675

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $423,643 $423,643 $423,643 $442,675
FY2018 (Next) $423,643 $423,643 $423,623 $423,623 $0

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $423,643 $423,623 $423,623 $0

* Expenditures data includes accruals and are based on data through 31-Aug-2017

Decided Budget Transfers  (FY2016 - FY2018)

Acct FY Acct Type Amount Fund Budget Decision Date
FY2016 Expense $423,643 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY16 Initial Planning Budgets - Expense 05/22/2015
FY2017 Expense $423,643 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY17 SOY Budgets 06/02/2016
FY2018 Expense $423,643 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY18 SOY Budgets 07/17/2017

Pending Budget Decision?  No


Project Cost Share:

FY2016 0 %
FY2015 8 %
FY2014 8 %
FY2013 8 %
FY2012 8 %
FY2011 8 %
FY2010 8 %
FY2009 2 %
FY2008 2 %
FY2007 0 %
Fiscal Year Cost Share Partner Total Proposed
Contribution
Total Confirmed
Contribution
FY2015 Chelan County PUD #1 $30,000
FY2015 University of Washington $5,824

Contracts

The table below contains contracts with the following statuses: Active, Complete, History, Issued.
Expense Contracts:
Number Contractor Name Title Status Contracted Amount Dates
55490 SOW University of Washington 1991-051-00 EXP M&E STATISTICAL SUPPORT LIFE CYCLE STUDIES History $418,275 1/1/2012 - 12/31/2012
74892 SOW University of Washington 1991-051-00 EXP STATISTICAL SUPPORT LIFE CYCLE STUDIES Issued $423,643 1/1/2017 - 12/31/2017



Annual Progress Reports
Expected (since FY2004):14
Completed:14
On time:14
Status Reports
Completed:48
On time:25
Avg Days Late:3

Earliest Subsequent           Accepted Count of Contract Deliverables
Contract Contract(s) Title Contractor Start End Status Reports Complete Green Yellow Red Total % Green and Complete Canceled
4134 13690, 25093, 29676, 35477, 40542, 44847, 50066, 55490, 59431, 63500, 67446, 71343, 74892 1991-051-00 MONITOR / EVAL STATISTICAL SUP / LIFE-CYCLE STUDIES University of Washington 03/2001 03/2001 Pending 48 70 5 0 0 75 100.00% 0
Project Totals 48 70 5 0 0 75 100.00% 0


Review: RME / AP Category Review

2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Assessment

Assessment Number: 1991-051-00-BIOP-20101105
Project Number: 1991-051-00
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-1991-051-00
Completed Date: None
2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Rating: Response Requested
Comments: BiOp Workgroup Comments: The investigators should highlight features of this project that distinguish it from project 1989-107-00 Statistical Support for Salmon, project 1987-127-00 Smolt Monitoring by Non-Federal Entities, and project 1996-020-00 Comparative Survival Study, as pertaining to RPAs 52.1, 52.3, 53.1, 53.2. There are clear differences in the way data are synthesized across years and real-time queries. Some elements appear to overlap with tasks described in project 1989-107-00.

The BiOp RM&E Workgroups made the following determinations regarding the proposal's ability or need to support BiOp Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) RPAs. If you have questions regarding these RPA association conclusions, please contact your BPA COTR and they will help clarify, or they will arrange further discussion with the appropriate RM&E Workgroup Leads. BiOp RPA associations for the proposed work are: (52.1 52.3 53.1 53.2)
All Questionable RPA Associations ( ) and
All Deleted RPA Associations ( )
Proponent Response:

Project 1989-107-00 (Statistical Support for Salmonid Survival Studies) is very different from this project  (1991-051-00) M&E Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies.  The other project has, as its mission, to develop statistical models for fish tagging studies and provide technology transfer and support to tagging investigators.  That project is not concerned with data analysis but, rather, to assure Council-funded studies are designed and have state-of-the-art statistical methods available for analysis.  This project, on the other hand, processes M&E data to calculate peformance measures, track their trends, predict smolt run timing, and provide the public with ready access to this information. 

This project provides real-time analysis to monitor smolt outmigration timing for use in water management and fish operations of the hydrosystem.  Since 1994, we have provided daily forecasts of smolt outmigration timing in real time for as many as 30 fish stocks at 5 hydroprojects to provide managers with the information necessary to optimally time spill augmentation if desired.

This project also provides value-added analyses of historical tagging data.  Since 2002, this project has routinely processed CWT and PIT-tag data to summarize fish performance and made that information publicly available on the Internet. Currently, we provide the calculation of SARs for over 350 hatchery stocks in the Basin, estimation of survival and travel times for over 25 hatchery and wild stocks over as many as 9 reaches, and the estimation of transportation effects, ocean survival (i.e., Bonneville to Bonneville), upriver adult survival, adult fallback rates at dams, and differential mortality (D) using joint juvenile and adult PIT-tag data for hatchery and wild Chinook salmon and steelhead. This project also summarizes compliance of spill, flow, and total dissolved gas levels with target goals at all major hydroprojects.

This project has a much larger scope than the comparative survival study (CSS) and Fish Passage Center (FPC) monitoring.  We use some of the same data as the CSS to calculate performance measures such as transport/inriver ratios (T/I) and D.  But we also go beyond that to estimate ocean survival, upriver adult survival, age composition, differences in upriver survival of transported and non-transported fish, etc.  We also perform the analyses differently.  While the CSS calculates T/I and D relative to the so-called C0 fish (fish never bypassed), we compare performance between transported fish and all inriver fish passage histories.  We believe this is more meaningful to managers wanting to know if transportation was beneficial versus the alternative option of keeping fish inriver at existing river operating conditions.  These analyses are also performed to provide BPA with independent assessment capabilities. 

Finally, our status and trends monitoring also includes wide-scale analyses of the Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) flow, spill, and water quality data, and comprehensive use of the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC) RMIS and PTAGIS databases.  PSMFC restricts itself to the role of data repository.  We provide summaries and relevant performance measures so the public can inspect and monitor trends in fish performance and hydroprogram operations. 

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 1991-051-00-ISRP-20101015
Project: 1991-051-00 - Modeling and Evaluation Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-1991-051-00
Completed Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
The proposal and presentation clearly indicate the overall benefit of this project to the Fish and Wildlife program. This project continues to be valuable in providing statistical support services to many other projects in the region. The proposal effectively relates the project to the 2008 BiOp via many RPAs, the Accords, the Fish and Wildlife Program, and the MERR plan.
The technical background section clearly presents how project output addresses regional monitoring needs and data analysis requirements. Objectives are clearly stated in terms of desired outcomes relative to status and trends of listed salmonid populations. The proposal provides an excellent history with significant accomplishments and with a very good reporting and publication record. Important accomplishments include estimation of SARs for over 350 stocks of hatchery fish and about 20 stocks of wild fish.

In the past, the ISRP has recommended customer surveys for documentation of the value of services. The proponents have somewhat addressed this issue by including unsolicited letters of appreciation that expressed satisfaction. However, summary results of actual customer satisfaction surveys would still be preferred.
First Round ISRP Date: 10/18/2010
First Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
First Round ISRP Comment:
The proposal and presentation clearly indicate the overall benefit of this project to the Fish and Wildlife program. This project continues to be valuable in providing statistical support services to many other projects in the region. The proposal effectively relates the project to the 2008 BiOp via many RPAs, the Accords, the Fish and Wildlife Program, and the MERR plan.
The technical background section clearly presents how project output addresses regional monitoring needs and data analysis requirements. Objectives are clearly stated in terms of desired outcomes relative to status and trends of listed salmonid populations. The proposal provides an excellent history with significant accomplishments and with a very good reporting and publication record. Important accomplishments include estimation of SARs for over 350 stocks of hatchery fish and about 20 stocks of wild fish.

In the past, the ISRP has recommended customer surveys for documentation of the value of services. The proponents have somewhat addressed this issue by including unsolicited letters of appreciation that expressed satisfaction. However, summary results of actual customer satisfaction surveys would still be preferred.
Documentation Links:

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 1991-051-00-NPCC-20110128
Project: 1991-051-00 - Modeling and Evaluation Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal: RMECAT-1991-051-00
Proposal State: Pending BPA Response
Approved Date: 6/10/2011
Recommendation: Fund
Comments: Implement through FY 2016.
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review

Legal Assessment (In-Lieu)

Assessment Number: 1991-051-00-INLIEU-20090521
Project Number: 1991-051-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 10/6/2006
In Lieu Rating: No Problems Exist
Cost Share Rating: None
Comment: Statistical support for M&E for recovery efforts; multiple other entities authorized/required (eg fishery managers, other hydro operators). Note: this rating changed from a "3" to a "1" because internal BPA review indicates that the proposal is focused primarily on specific FCRPS M&E efforts.

Capital Assessment

Assessment Number: 1991-051-00-CAPITAL-20090618
Project Number: 1991-051-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 2/27/2007
Capital Rating: Does Not Qualify for Capital Funding
Capital Asset Category: None
Comment: None

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 1991-051-00-ISRP-20060831
Project: 1991-051-00 - Modeling and Evaluation Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 8/31/2006
Final Round ISRP Date: None
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
This is a high priority project deserving support. The proposal provides an extensive background and justification of the technical and scientific background. The Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP) calls for status and trends monitoring for the hydrosystem, tributaries, estuary, and harvest. This project addresses these issues by providing in-season and post-season evaluation of smolt outmigration success, adult return information, stream escapement, habitat mitigation activities, and harvest.

There appears to be collaboration with a number of other projects (six BPA projects indicated), but linkage is only generally described.

The history is extremely well documented indicating significant benefits and accomplishments. Nevertheless the following comments from the most recent ISRP review still apply: "The main elements of the project are to provide real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing and to provide value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships. An additional element is to provide statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis. The response provides information on clients and contributions. The project provides a valuable service. The ISRP suggests that in the future a summary of the following be provided in support of proposals: 1) data on the amount and nature of use of electronic data and analyses posted on the web, 2) responses to satisfaction surveys by internet users, 3) number of requests for analyses and the time taken to respond to those requests."

These comments are still applicable including the request for information concerning use and satisfaction by users. Only a response to (3)(the number of project requests and the number of hours spent in responding to those requests) was included in this proposal. It would still be useful to include recommendations # (1)&(2). The ISRP notes that such activities would also provide feedback for quality improvement of this ongoing project.
Documentation Links:

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 1991-051-00-NPCC-20090924
Project: 1991-051-00 - Modeling and Evaluation Statistical Support for Life-Cycle Studies
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Approved Date: 10/23/2006
Recommendation: Fund
Comments:

Project Relationships: None

Name Role Organization
Richard Townsend Technical Contact University of Washington
John Skalski Project Lead University of Washington
Cindy Helfrich Administrative Contact University of Washington
Christine Petersen Project Manager Bonneville Power Administration
Jason Sweet (Inactive) Supervisor Bonneville Power Administration