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Project 2007-198-00 - Next Steps in Subbasin Planning: Umatilla Pilot Project
Next Steps in Subbasin Planning: Umatilla Pilot Project
Summary:
The purpose of this project is to nurture regionally standardized modeling of managed salmonid stocks using a pilot study of Umatilla Summer Steelhead, and will include collaborative sub-contracts with Columbia Basin Agencies and Authorities.
The project is ambitious and does address what some would consider a critical need within the basin. A key selling point for the proposed work is that the model framework would be broadly used within basin. The sponsors, however, did not provide evidence of clear and direct support for the proposed work from agencies and tribes. The basin's experience with PATH and the large-scale investment of agencies and tribes in their own models may not be conducive to their participation in the proposed work.
The proposal does a poor job of identifying the difficulties in accomplishing the proposed work. Many, perhaps most, of the models that could become modules in the proposed integrative model have not been rigorously field validated, and many have not been subject to critical scientific review. These kinds of problems will impact the applicability of the proposed modeling endeavor as a decision-support tool. Furthermore the ISAB, in a review of Columbia River Basin models, recognized the shortcomings as well as the strengths of all the major models and recommended the use, not of a single grand model, but of multiple models to support decisions.