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Project Summary

Project 1993-029-00 - Survival Estimate for Passage through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs
Project Number:
1993-029-00
Title:
Survival Estimate for Passage through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs
Summary:
Beginning in 1993, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the University of Washington (UW) began research to determine survival and travel-time characteristics of wild and hatchery-reared spring/summer Chinook salmon and hatchery steelhead migrating through Snake River dams and reservoirs. This research was expanded in 1995 to include Snake River fall Chinook salmon. The initial goals of this research program were to 1) field test and evaluate the single-release, modified single-release, and paired-release Models for the estimation of reach and project survival, 2) provide annual estimates of reach and project survival with known precision, and 3) explore relationships among fish travel time, fish survival, and environmental conditions. The first goal was addressed in detail during the first 5 years of research. Presently, we continue to work on the second and third goals. Additionally, we are now evaluating adult returns of PIT-tagged fish to further understand the relationships among juvenile survival, travel time, migration timing, and other factors, such as numbers of bypasses or passage routes, that juveniles encountered during their downstream migration to look for correlations with adult survival. We also continue to evaluate violation of survival model assumptions, a necessary step in producing unbiased survival estimates.
In 2010, we plan to continue providing reach survival estimates through Snake and Columbia River dams and reservoirs throughout the yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead migrations. Survival estimates will be made as far downstream as possible depending on numbers of fish PIT-tagged and released from other studies. If survival cannot be estimated through some reaches, available estimates will be extrapolated to provide an estimate through the entire hydropower system. At Lower Granite Dam, we will PIT tag and release up to 20,000 wild yearling Chinook salmon, 20,000 wild steelhead, and 20,000 hatchery steelhead, depending on their availability. To reduce handling, we will rely on releases of PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon from hatcheries to estimate their survival through the Snake and Columbia Rivers. We will not PIT tag Snake River hatchery subyearling fall Chinook salmon in 2010 because sufficient numbers will be PIT-tagged and released for USACE funded transportation research.
During 2010, this study will also be partially supporting the PIT tag trawl effort in the Columbia River estuary in a cost sharing agreement with the USACE. The data the PIT tag trawl provides is needed to estimate survival through the final reach of the hydropower system, from John Day to Bonneville Dam tailrace.
Proposer:
None
Proponent Orgs:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Govt - Federal)
Starting FY:
1993
Ending FY:
2017
Stage:
Implementation - Project Status Report
Area:
Province Subbasin %
Mainstem - 100.00%
Purpose:
Hydrosystem
Emphasis:
RM and E
Focal Species:
All Anadromous Fish
All Anadromous Salmonids
Chinook - All Populations
Chinook - Lower Columbia River ESU (threatened)
Chinook - Mid-Columbia River Spring ESU
Chinook - Snake River Fall ESU (threatened)
Chinook - Snake River Spring/Summer
Chinook - Snake River Spring/Summer ESU (threatened)
Chinook - Upper Columbia River Spring ESU (endangered)
Chinook - Upper Columbia River Summer/Fall ESU
Chinook - Upper Willamette River ESU (threatened)
Coho - Unspecified Population
OBSOLETE-Pikeminnow, Northern
Sockeye - All Populations
Sockeye - Lake Wenatchee ESU
Sockeye - Okanogan River ESU
Sockeye - Snake River ESU (endangered)
Steelhead - All Populations
Steelhead - Lower Columbia River DPS (threatened)
Steelhead - Middle Columbia River DPS (threatened)
Steelhead - Snake River DPS (threatened)
Steelhead - Upper Columbia River DPS (threatened)
Steelhead - Upper Willamette River DPS (threatened)
Species Benefit:
Anadromous: 100.0%   Resident: 0.0%   Wildlife: 0.0%
Special:
None
BiOp Association:
FCRPS 2008 – view list of

RPA 50.3 Monitor juvenile fish migrations at mainstem hydro dams,
RPA 52.2 Monitor and evaluate juvenile salmonid system survival,
RPA 52.4 Provide additional PIT-tag marking of UCR populations,
RPA 53.2 Monitor/describe migration timing of smolts at index dams,
RPA 54.2 Analyze effectiveness of traditional juvenile bypass systems,
RPA 54.6 Evaluate effectiveness of juvenile fish transport program,
RPA 54.7 Evaluate environ. condition impact on juvenile fish survival,
RPA 55.2 Analyze post-BON mortality due to arrival timing/transport

Trawling area adjacent to the ship navigation channel in the upper Columbia River estuary near rkm 75.

Figure Name: Figure 1

Document ID: P115900

Document: Pair-Trawl Detection of PIT-Tagged Juvenile Salmonids Migrating in the Columbia River Estuary, 2009

Page Number: 10

Project: 1993-029-00

Contract: 40735


Summary of Budgets

To view all expenditures for all fiscal years, click "Project Exp. by FY"

Expense SOY Budget Working Budget Contracted Amount Modified Contract Amount Expenditures *
FY2016 (Previous) $1,712,000 $1,757,000 $1,757,002 $1,757,002 $1,599,336

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $1,757,000 $1,757,002 $1,757,002 $1,599,336
FY2017 (Current) $1,712,000 $1,712,000 $1,712,000 $1,712,000 $886,919

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $1,712,000 $1,712,000 $1,712,000 $886,919
FY2018 (Next) $0 $0 $0 $0

BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) $0 $0 $0 $0

* Expenditures data includes accruals and are based on data through 28-Feb-2017

Decided Budget Transfers  (FY2016 - FY2018)

Acct FY Acct Type Amount Fund Budget Decision Date
FY2016 Expense $1,712,000 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY16 Initial Planning Budgets - Expense 05/22/2015
FY2016 Expense $45,000 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) January FY16 02/05/2016
FY2017 Expense $1,712,000 From: BiOp FCRPS 2008 (non-Accord) FY17 SOY Budgets 06/02/2016

Pending Budget Decision?  No


No Project Cost Share

FY2016 0 %
FY2015 0 %
FY2014 0 %
FY2013 41 %
FY2012 39 %
FY2011 0 %
FY2010 19 %
FY2009 37 %
FY2008 32 %
FY2007 31 %
Fiscal Year Cost Share Partner Total Proposed
Contribution
Total Confirmed
Contribution

Contracts

The table below contains contracts with the following statuses: Active, Complete, History, Issued.
Expense Contracts:
Number Contractor Name Title Status Contracted Amount Dates
27293 SOW University of Washington 1993-029-00 QUANT GUIDANCE ON DESIGN/ANALYSIS OF SALMON STUDIES History $47,328 4/11/2006 - 4/10/2007
28324 SOW University of Washington 1993-029-00 EXP ANALYZE PREDATOR-PREY DYNAMICS DATA & PREPARE MS History $24,182 8/1/2006 - 6/30/2007
BPA-003710 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est For Passage Throu Active $72,658 10/1/2007 - 9/30/2008
BPA-004320 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Throu Active $108,293 10/1/2008 - 9/30/2009
BPA-004983 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Throu Active $103,601 10/1/2009 - 9/30/2010
BPA-005563 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage thru Snake & Col Rivers Active $116,248 10/1/2006 - 9/30/2007
BPA-005705 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage thru Snake & Col Rivers Active $121,868 10/1/2010 - 9/30/2011
BPA-006347 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Active $104,540 10/1/2011 - 9/30/2012
BPA-007016 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Active $111,992 10/1/2012 - 9/30/2013
BPA-007726 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Active $68,565 10/1/2013 - 9/30/2014
BPA-008383 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Active $93,867 10/1/2014 - 9/30/2015
BPA-008911 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers FY16 Active $62,702 10/1/2015 - 9/30/2016
46273 REL 116 SOW National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1993-029-00 EXP SURVIVAL EST FOR PASSAGE THRU SNAKE/COLUMBIA Issued $1,694,300 4/1/2016 - 3/31/2017
46273 REL 123 SOW National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1993-029-00 EXP SURVIVAL EST FOR PASSAGE THRU SNAKE/COLUMBIA Issued $1,603,130 1/1/2017 - 12/31/2017
BPA-009524 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Active $108,870 10/1/2016 - 9/30/2017



Annual Progress Reports
Expected (since FY2004):16
Completed:3
On time:3
Status Reports
Completed:53
On time:31
Avg Days Late:15

Earliest Subsequent           Accepted Count of Contract Deliverables
Contract Contract(s) Title Contractor Start End Status Reports Complete Green Yellow Red Total % Green and Complete Canceled
4922 22389, 26472, 31082, 36723, 40735, 46273 REL 3, 46273 REL 35, 46273 REL 58, 46273 REL 79, 46273 REL 94, 46273 REL 116, 46273 REL 123 1993-029-00 SURVIVAL ESTIMATES FOR THE PASSAGE OF JUVENILE SAL. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 04/2001 04/2001 Issued 46 71 11 0 14 96 85.42% 0
27293 1993-029-00 QUANT GUIDANCE ON DESIGN/ANALYSIS OF SALMON STUDIES University of Washington 04/2006 04/2006 History 4 2 0 0 1 3 66.67% 0
28324 1993-029-00 EXP ANALYZE PREDATOR-PREY DYNAMICS DATA & PREPARE MS University of Washington 08/2006 08/2006 History 3 1 0 0 1 2 50.00% 0
BPA-005563 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage thru Snake & Col Rivers Bonneville Power Administration 10/2006 10/2006 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-003710 PIT Tags - Survival Est For Passage Throu Bonneville Power Administration 10/2007 10/2007 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-004320 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Throu Bonneville Power Administration 10/2008 10/2008 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-004983 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Throu Bonneville Power Administration 10/2009 10/2009 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-005705 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage thru Snake & Col Rivers Bonneville Power Administration 10/2010 10/2010 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-006347 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Bonneville Power Administration 10/2011 10/2011 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-007016 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Bonneville Power Administration 10/2012 10/2012 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-007726 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Bonneville Power Administration 10/2013 10/2013 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-008383 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Bonneville Power Administration 10/2014 10/2014 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-008911 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers FY16 Bonneville Power Administration 10/2015 10/2015 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-009524 PIT Tags - Survival Est for Passage Thru Snake & Col. Rivers Bonneville Power Administration 10/2016 10/2016 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Project Totals 53 74 11 0 16 101 84.16% 0


Review: RME / AP Category Review

2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Assessment

Assessment Number: 1993-029-00-BIOP-20101105
Project Number: 1993-029-00
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-1993-029-00
Completed Date: None
2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Rating: Response Requested
Comments: BiOp Workgroup Comments: This project proposal should include close coordination and participation in the development and implementation of the regional PIT Plan.

Please identify:
1. Why your data is "not electronically available"; and
2. What data sets will not be "electronically available" for various deliverables. Please specify the deliverable that is not electronically available. (Note a data set includes the raw data collected and additional data on analysis). For example if there is a deliverable for population adult abundance or habitat, we expect your raw and synthesized data to be made available electronically.
- Your response may help BPA identify funding needs for data repositories or identify an existing data warehouse that your data could be stored.

The BiOp RM&E Workgroups made the following determinations regarding the proposal's ability or need to support BiOp Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) RPAs. If you have questions regarding these RPA association conclusions, please contact your BPA COTR and they will help clarify, or they will arrange further discussion with the appropriate RM&E Workgroup Leads. BiOp RPA associations for the proposed work are: (50.2 52.2 54.2 54.7)
All Questionable RPA Associations ( ) and
All Deleted RPA Associations ( )
Proponent Response:

Data and analysis generated by this project are available electronically in table form (word) and figures from our annual reports to the Bonneville Power Administration.  Data include detection probabilities for individual hatchery releases of PIT tag fish, and at dams for as well as survival estimates for these groups and various other groups (wild, hatchery, and wild and hatchery combined for various species.

We do not anticipate making the raw data anymore avialable then this in the future, as the raw data comes from PTAGIS, which is available electronically from the PTAGIS website.

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 1993-029-00-ISRP-20101015
Project: 1993-029-00 - Survival Estimate for Passage through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-1993-029-00
Completed Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
The responses provided to the ISRP's five questions were complete and indicate that the project proponents have fully considered the strengths and limitations of the data generated by the project. The proponents candidly admitted that that this project is not designed to estimate some metrics, such as SARs, and does not have a sufficient number of smolts tagged to make extensive evaluations of adult returns. The precision of travel time and survival estimates is acceptable, and biases in the estimates are acknowledged, but the magnitude of potential bias due to sampling constraints was not fully addressed. The proponents acknowledge that the power of statistical tests may be less than ideal when testing for correlations between reach survivals and environmental conditions, and between reach survivals and improvements in dam bypass structures, but accumulated data from multiple years of the study will still provide insight into these questions.

The responses demonstrated that the proponents had thought in advance about the questions asked and are making a concerted effort to improve the sampling program. The sampling conducted seems adequate for the questions posed in the project.
First Round ISRP Date: 10/18/2010
First Round ISRP Rating: Response Requested
First Round ISRP Comment:
A response is requested to address the following questions:

1. Is the tagging level of 50-60K sufficient to obtain adequate precision for smolt travel time and survival estimates? Is the sample of tagged fish selected to ensure the estimates are accurate? If not, what is the estimated magnitude of the bias?

2. If 2-3% of smolts are detected in the estuary with PIT tag trawl, is this a source of bias? If so, what is the estimated magnitude of the bias?

3. The sampling season covers 85-90% the season when PIT tagged fish pass. Is this a source of bias? If so, what is the estimated magnitude of bias? What is known about the fish that pass earlier and later?

4. When relating annual estimates of smolt travel time and survival to migration conditions is the tagging level sufficient? Is it excessive?

5. When relating annual estimates of smolt travel time and survival with adult returns is the tagging level sufficient? Is it excessive?

This is one of the high priority projects in the Fish and Wildlife Program. It continues to provide critical survival estimates/metrics for tracking recovery and status and trends of listed salmonids. The information provided by this project is central to understanding how survival of migrating juvenile salmonids is affected by operation of the FCRPS. The conditions encountered by migrating fish in the hydropower system change over time: in recent years, new surface bypass structures have been constructed at many mainstem dams, and additional spill is now provided to assist fish passage through the dams. In addition, changing ocean conditions strongly influence smolt-to-adult return rates. Continuation of this project is well justified.

Information from this study has been used by managers in the basin to help guide structural and operational changes at Snake and Columbia River dams in order to improve smolt travel time and survival. The travel time and smolt survival data have also been used for development of NOAA’s COMPASS model and continue to be used each year to evaluate COMPASS model performance and to improve the model. The proposal also addresses past concerns about possible overlap with CSS and other studies by stating that some duplication of the critical data and analyses of this and the CSS project is not necessarily bad, but can provide an error check mechanism and instill more confidence if results are consistent. Comparison of information generated by this project with JSATS and POST generated results would be useful.

It is unclear from the proposal how the performance of this project has been monitored and evaluated. Evidence should be presented in future proposals to indicate how well this project has been performing and how adaptations based on monitoring of performance have been implemented.
Documentation Links:
  • Proponent Response (11/15/2010)

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 1993-029-00-NPCC-20110128
Project: 1993-029-00 - Survival Estimate for Passage through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal: RMECAT-1993-029-00
Proposal State: Pending BPA Response
Approved Date: 6/10/2011
Recommendation: Fund (Qualified)
Comments: Implement through FY 2016. See presumptive path discussion in Programmatic Recommendation no. 10.
Conditions:
Council Condition #1 Programmatic Issue: RMECAT #10 PIT tags and related tags—See presumptive path discussion
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review

Legal Assessment (In-Lieu)

Assessment Number: 1993-029-00-INLIEU-20090521
Project Number: 1993-029-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 10/6/2006
In Lieu Rating: No Problems Exist
Cost Share Rating: None
Comment: R&ME relating to mainstem passage.

Capital Assessment

Assessment Number: 1993-029-00-CAPITAL-20090618
Project Number: 1993-029-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 2/27/2007
Capital Rating: Does Not Qualify for Capital Funding
Capital Asset Category: None
Comment: None

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 1993-029-00-ISRP-20060831
Project: 1993-029-00 - Survival Estimate for Passage through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 8/31/2006
Final Round ISRP Date: None
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
The size and complexity of the project warrant periodic special review. The region is again advised to think about the future of this research and monitoring effort, which is a cornerstone of salmon evaluations in the mainstem of the lower Snake and Columbia rivers.

This is a very well prepared proposal that rates high marks for all ISRP review criteria. The ISRP's positive comments on the FY 2000 and FY2003 proposals remain germane. The excellent publication record continues.

New for the project since the last review is the evaluation of adult returns of PIT-tagged fish to further understand relationships among adult survival, juvenile survival, travel time, migration timing, and other factors, such as numbers of bypasses or passage routes that juveniles encountered during their downstream migration. This is a natural and worthwhile evolution of project objectives and will continue to keep this project a cornerstone of salmon survival evaluations in the mainstem.
Documentation Links:

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 1993-029-00-NPCC-20090924
Project: 1993-029-00 - Survival Estimate for Passage through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Approved Date: 10/23/2006
Recommendation: Fund
Comments:

Project Relationships: None

Name Role Organization
Richard Zabel Interested Party National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Steven Smith Interested Party National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Hannah Dondy-Kaplan (Inactive) Interested Party Bonneville Power Administration
Tiffani Marsh Project Lead National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Douglas Dey Supervisor National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Paul Bentley Technical Contact National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Gregory Smith Env. Compliance Lead Bonneville Power Administration
Christine Petersen Project Manager Bonneville Power Administration