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Project Summary

Project 2003-041-00 - Evaluate Delayed (Extra) Mortality Associated with Passage of Yearling Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams
Project Number:
2003-041-00
Title:
Evaluate Delayed (Extra) Mortality Associated with Passage of Yearling Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams
Summary:
The goal of this study is to determine whether migration through Snake River dams and reservoirs causes extra mortality in Snake River yearling (spring/summer) Chinook salmon smolts. Specifically, the study will determine if life-cycle survival downstream from McNary Dam is significantly higher for yearling Chinook salmon released into the Ice Harbor Dam tailrace than for counterparts which must pass three additional dams and reservoirs after release into the Lower Granite Dam tailrace.

Whether or not migration through the FCRPS, as currently configured, causes mortality to anadromous salmonid smolts that is not expressed until after they have passed through the system is one of the most important questions currently facing the region. Experimentation will be required to confirm or refute this hypothesized mortality. If it is real, a precise estimate of its magnitude will be essential to determine the degree to which dam removal would increase life-cycle survival.

The study proposed in this Scope of Work directly addresses RM&E Strategy 2, RPA 55; Investigate Hydro Critical Uncertainties and Investigate New Technologies of the 2008 FCRPS Biological Opinion (2008 BiOp).

Juvenile tagging and release were completed in 2011. Adult returns will be complete from the 2011 release year in 2014.

Work elements and milestones for the 2012 study year are provided below. NMFS will keep the BPA COTR apprised of any work scheduling limitations or alterations.
Proposer:
None
Proponent Orgs:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Govt - Federal)
Starting FY:
2004
Ending FY:
2015
Stage:
Area:
Province Subbasin %
Basinwide - 100.00%
Purpose:
Hydrosystem
Emphasis:
RM and E
Focal Species:
Chinook - Snake River Spring/Summer
Chinook - Snake River Spring/Summer ESU (threatened)
Species Benefit:
Anadromous: 100.0%   Resident: 0.0%   Wildlife: 0.0%
Special:
None

No photos have been uploaded yet for this project.

Summary of Budgets

To view all expenditures for all fiscal years, click "Project Exp. by FY"

Expense SOY Budget Working Budget Contracted Amount Modified Contract Amount Expenditures *
FY2016 (Previous) $0 $0 $0 $0

FY2017 (Current) $0 $0 $0 $0

FY2018 (Next) $0 $0 $0 $0

* Expenditures data includes accruals and are based on data through 31-Jul-2017

No Decided Budget Transfers

Pending Budget Decision?  No


No Project Cost Share

FY2015 0 %
FY2014 0 %
FY2013 0 %
FY2012 0 %
FY2011 0 %
FY2010 0 %
FY2009 0 %
FY2008 0 %
FY2007 0 %
Fiscal Year Cost Share Partner Total Proposed
Contribution
Total Confirmed
Contribution

Contracts

The table below contains contracts with the following statuses: Active, Complete, History, Issued.
Expense Contracts:
Number Contractor Name Title Status Contracted Amount Dates
BPA-003694 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Evaluate Salmon Thru Snake River Dams Active $147,132 10/1/2007 - 9/30/2008
BPA-004324 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Eval Samon Thru Snake R Dams Active $216,586 10/1/2008 - 9/30/2009
BPA-004996 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Eval Salmon thru Snake R Dam Active $248,642 10/1/2009 - 9/30/2010
BPA-005681 Bonneville Power Administration PIT Tags - Evaluate Salmon through Snake River Dams Active $152,335 10/1/2010 - 9/30/2011



Annual Progress Reports
Expected (since FY2004):10
Completed:7
On time:7
Status Reports
Completed:39
On time:24
Avg Days Early:2

Earliest Subsequent           Accepted Count of Contract Deliverables
Contract Contract(s) Title Contractor Start End Status Reports Complete Green Yellow Red Total % Green and Complete Canceled
16576 24575, 32992, 37308, 41855, 46273 REL 4, 46273 REL 20, 46273 REL 36, 46273 REL 60, 46273 REL 81 2003-041-00 EVAL SALMON THRU SNAKE R DAMS National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 02/2004 02/2004 Closed 39 53 0 0 4 57 92.98% 2
BPA-003694 PIT Tags - Evaluate Salmon Thru Snake River Dams Bonneville Power Administration 10/2007 10/2007 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-004324 PIT Tags - Eval Samon Thru Snake R Dams Bonneville Power Administration 10/2008 10/2008 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-004996 PIT Tags - Eval Salmon thru Snake R Dam Bonneville Power Administration 10/2009 10/2009 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPA-005681 PIT Tags - Evaluate Salmon through Snake River Dams Bonneville Power Administration 10/2010 10/2010 Active 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Project Totals 39 53 0 0 4 57 92.98% 2


Review: RME / AP Category Review

2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Assessment

Assessment Number: 2003-041-00-BIOP-20101105
Project Number: 2003-041-00
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-2003-041-00
Completed Date: None
2008 FCRPS BiOp Workgroup Rating: Supports 2008 FCRPS BiOp
Comments: BiOp Workgroup Comments: No BiOp Workgroup comments

The BiOp RM&E Workgroups made the following determinations regarding the proposal's ability or need to support BiOp Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) RPAs. If you have questions regarding these RPA association conclusions, please contact your BPA COTR and they will help clarify, or they will arrange further discussion with the appropriate RM&E Workgroup Leads. BiOp RPA associations for the proposed work are: (52.1 52.2 53.2 53.3 54.1 54.12 54.5 54.6 54.7 54.8 55.1 55.2 )
All Questionable RPA Associations ( ) and
All Deleted RPA Associations ( 59.1 59.2 59.3 59.4 59.5)
Proponent Response:

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 2003-041-00-ISRP-20101015
Project: 2003-041-00 - Evaluate Delayed (Extra) Mortality Associated with Passage of Yearling Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal Number: RMECAT-2003-041-00
Completed Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Date: 12/17/2010
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
The response was adequate to address ISRP questions and provided additional information. The project proponents understand and are forthcoming about the limitations of their data. The results of this project are limited in space and time, but the results could justify further studies, that together with this project, could provide a more complete understanding of potential delayed mortality. The results could bear on future decisions on dam configuration and operations. This study is responsive to the ISAB's Latent Mortality Report and past ISRP reviews.

Concerning Q5 on ocean conditions, and the number of study years needed to bracket a range of those conditions, the proponents state later on in their response that, “Seven data points should give us a good feel for what is happening to hatchery Chinook.” And “If managers in the region would like to see additional years of study, or other species added, we are open to that.” The ISRP suggests that the proponents consult with oceanographers to get an impression if, in fact, seven years are enough, given our present knowledge of the time scales of change in the oceans. Some even say there are cycles and, if so, to properly answer the latent mortality questions the peaks and troughs of the cycles might need to be sampled.

The desirability of extending the project to obtain more years of data, or to include additional species, can be better evaluated after three or more years of completed adult returns are available. Although, as the project proponents acknowledge, no experimental design can simulate migration through a free-flowing Snake River, the results of the study will either support the hypothesis that survival is decreased by migration through the three lower dams and reservoirs, or fail to support an effect large enough to be detected, given the power of the tests.
First Round ISRP Date: 10/18/2010
First Round ISRP Rating: Response Requested
First Round ISRP Comment:
A response is requested that provides:

1. evidence that sample sizes are sufficient to detect meaningful differences in SARs between the two Lower Granite release groups;

2. evidence that the assumption of lognormally distributed LG/IH ratio is tenable;

3. an assessment of the extent to which hatchery fish used in this study are representative of wild stocks;

4. more details explaining the method used to estimate the number of juveniles that survived and were detected at McNary Dam;

5. a more complete assessment of the influence of ocean conditions on results to date.

This is a very significant program that has the potential to answer some of the key questions about possible latent mortality due to dam passage. The proposal is well written. The objectives are straightforward and explained well. Accomplishments are reasonable and summarized well for each year of the project. The technical background is generally well done. The history of this project is not well described, and the proposal would benefit from more detailed information on how it developed. There is the issue of the extent to which the LG/IH ratio is analogous to the differential mortality parameter, D. Also, there is a question as to whether or not the length of time for the study will be adequate to obtain meaningful results because there are really only three years of data now rather than five years. These issues should be addressed in a response.
Documentation Links:
  • Proponent Response (11/15/2010)

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 2003-041-00-NPCC-20101130
Project: 2003-041-00 - Evaluate Delayed (Extra) Mortality Associated with Passage of Yearling Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams
Review: RME / AP Category Review
Proposal: RMECAT-2003-041-00
Proposal State: Pending BPA Response
Approved Date: 6/10/2011
Recommendation: Fund (Qualified)
Comments: Implement through 2014. Project is winding down and will be complete in 2014. See presumptive path discussion in Programmatic Recommendation no. 10.
Conditions:
Council Condition #1 Programmatic Issue: RMECAT #10 PIT tags and related tags—See presumptive path discussion
Council Condition #2 Programmatic Issue: RMECAT #6 Research projects in general—.
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review

Legal Assessment (In-Lieu)

Assessment Number: 2003-041-00-INLIEU-20090521
Project Number: 2003-041-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 10/6/2006
In Lieu Rating: No Problems Exist
Cost Share Rating: None
Comment: RM&E of delayed mortality through of FCRPS lower snake dams.

Capital Assessment

Assessment Number: 2003-041-00-CAPITAL-20090618
Project Number: 2003-041-00
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 2/27/2007
Capital Rating: Does Not Qualify for Capital Funding
Capital Asset Category: None
Comment: None

Independent Scientific Review Panel Assessment

Assessment Number: 2003-041-00-ISRP-20060831
Project: 2003-041-00 - Evaluate Delayed (Extra) Mortality Associated with Passage of Yearling Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Completed Date: 8/31/2006
Final Round ISRP Date: None
Final Round ISRP Rating: Meets Scientific Review Criteria
Final Round ISRP Comment:
This is a high priority project that deserves funding. The problem addressed in this project is delayed mortality. This project addresses the lack of empirical experiments designed to quantify delayed effects associated with hydrosystem passage. The proposal refers to the ISRP Retrospective Report (2005) and the BiOp Remand as requesting similar research needs as those stated in this project's objectives.

The overall objectives are clearly stated. The proposal states that the project will use smolt-to-adult return rates (SAR) of PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon smolts exposed to two different migrational experiences within the FCRPS to test the hypothesis of extra or delayed passage mortality. The response clarifies how the three treatment groups will be compared and what the implications of all comparisons are. Also, the response provided additional details on the estimation of standard error for the L/I ratio that is fundamental in determining target sample sizes.

The proposal documented some other funded work in the area, and the response provided a more complete summary. Relationships to other projects were clearly identified in the response. The history of the project is briefly described by noting reasons for lack of progress. Although the project has recently started, the results have been reported, including a paper in Transactions of the American Fisheries Society.

In summary, the sponsors of the proposal agreed with all of the ISRP review comments and recommendations and responded with appropriate and adequate revisions to the proposal.
Documentation Links:

Council Recommendation

Assessment Number: 2003-041-00-NPCC-20090924
Project: 2003-041-00 - Evaluate Delayed (Extra) Mortality Associated with Passage of Yearling Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams
Review: FY07-09 Solicitation Review
Approved Date: 10/23/2006
Recommendation: Fund
Comments:

Project Relationships: None

Name Role Organization
Tiffani Marsh Project Lead National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Deborah Docherty Project Manager Bonneville Power Administration
Paul Krueger (Inactive) Supervisor Bonneville Power Administration
Katey Grange Interested Party Bonneville Power Administration
Sandra Downing Administrative Contact National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Richard Zabel Supervisor National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Douglas Dey Supervisor National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Jesse Wilson Env. Compliance Lead Bonneville Power Administration