Qualification: A collaborative synthesis report with Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) and NOAA evaluating and comparing the captive rearing strategies should be prepared and jointly reviewed by the ISAB and ISRP.

The comparison of captive rearing methods (strategies) – Salmon River rearing and releasing adults, Grande Ronde rearing to adults/spawning and producing smolts for release – is one of the few adaptive management experiments in the basin. A report comparing the methods and evaluating the efficacy of the strategy and methods is needed. The report should be evaluated by the ISAB and ISRP as a report to the Council on an independent conclusion on the scope of the benefit (and cost) of using this approach to rescue populations that have extremely small numbers of spawning adults.

1. Purpose, Significance to Regional Programs, Technical Background, and Objectives

The Captive Broodstock Program was designed to prevent extinction of the Chinook salmon populations in three Grande Ronde Basin streams. The Catherine Creek and the Lostine River populations have increased to a level where they can be phased out and will end with the 2010 spawning season. The program in the upper Grande Ronde River is being transitioned to a Safety Net Program, which will rear salmon to be used in years when insufficient numbers of adults return for the conventional hatchery programs.

Captive broodstock projects for Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon are supported by recommendations in the Snake River Salmon Recovery Team, NMFS draft recovery plan, and the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program. This project addresses some objectives identified in the 1994 Fish and Wildlife Program.

2. History: Accomplishments, Results, and Adaptive Management

The primary accomplishment for the Captive Broodstock Program was the successful rearing and spawning of natural parr (and later eggs) to produce smolts for release in select Oregon watersheds. The Catherine Creek and Lostine River populations have increased and have reached the Program’s goal of a consistent return of >150 adults spawning in nature. As a result, the Captive Broodstock Program for these two populations has come to an end. Data to assess any contribution the captive broodstock program had to this increase in abundance awaits future analysis. The last of the fish from these two populations will be spawned in 2010. Details on accomplishments and significant findings about the program were not provided in the proposal but some findings were described in the presentation. It was not clear whether the adult spawning goal of 150 fish was hatchery fish, hatchery/wild crosses, or natural origin fish. The ISRP has emphasized the need to provide performance expectations for the abundance of both hatchery- and natural-origin adults in supplementation programs.

The Upper Grande Ronde River population has not quite reached the Program’s goal for abundance. Some years it has had an extremely high abundance of salmon spawning in nature (>500), while in other years the abundance has been well under 100 adults. Therefore, ODFW and the Umatilla Tribe have begun a Safety Net Program for the Upper Grande Ronde River Chinook salmon population. This program will take 300 eyed eggs from the Upper Grande Ronde River Conventional Hatchery Program (equal numbers of eggs from all females) and rear them in captivity to maturation. If they are unable to collect a sufficient number of returning adults for the Conventional Hatchery Program for a given spawn year, they will spawn the Safety Net adults and use their offspring to supplement the Conventional Program production. If the Safety Net Program adults are not needed, they will be released and allowed to spawn naturally in Upper Grande Ronde River tributaries that do not currently contain Chinook salmon.

The program has adapted to emerging problems that have arisen, such as BKD.

3. Project Relationships, Emerging Limiting Factors, and Tailored Questions for Type of Work (Hatchery, RME, Tagging)

The project is reportedly integrated with other hatchery, habitat, and research projects in the Grande Ronde Basin. The project has followed previous recommendations to phase out the program when natural production goals were achieved. The proposal noted that excess fish from the Captive Broodstock Program may be released into suitable under-seeded streams (Wallowa River (9 RK 64-76), Hurricane Creek (RK 0-8), Bear Creek (RK 0-14) and Prairie Creek (RK 0-8) in the Wallowa River drainage; Sheep Creek (RK 0-8) in the Upper Grande Ronde River drainage). These supplementation activities should be evaluated in the final report. The project should demonstrate collaboration with other groups working in the watershed.

4. Deliverables, Work Elements, Metrics, and Methods

Portions of the deliverables were attributed to captive rearing and others to safety net. It was not clear to the ISRP how Accord safety net tasks are being separated from ongoing captive rearing tasks.

The final report should provide a comprehensive review of the Captive Broodstock Program, including but not limited to numbers of parr/eggs collected, their survival to smolt stage, and subsequent return as adults. The report should evaluate whether increased abundance in Catherine Creek and the Lostine River can be attributed to the captive brood stock program and what fraction was related to natural production. Density-dependent effects should be evaluated and discussed in light of supplementation activities and the potential for ongoing habitat restoration to increase the capacity of streams to support salmon. Comparisons with reference streams (Minam and Wenaha) should be made if possible. Efforts by other projects in the watershed should be incorporated into the final report as necessary to provide a comprehensive review of Chinook salmon population dynamics, supplementation effects, and habitat restoration.

Qualification: A collaborative synthesis report with Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) and NOAA evaluating and comparing the captive rearing strategies should be prepared and jointly reviewed by the ISAB and ISRP. The comparison of captive rearing methods (strategies) – Salmon River rearing and releasing adults, Grande Ronde rearing to adults/spawning and producing smolts for release – is one of the few adaptive management experiments in the basin. A report comparing the methods and evaluating the efficacy of the strategy and methods is needed. The report should be evaluated by the ISAB and ISRP as a report to the Council on an independent conclusion on the scope of the benefit (and cost) of using this approach to rescue populations that have extremely small numbers of spawning adults. 1. Purpose, Significance to Regional Programs, Technical Background, and Objectives The Captive Broodstock Program was designed to prevent extinction of the Chinook salmon populations in three Grande Ronde Basin streams. The Catherine Creek and the Lostine River populations have increased to a level where they can be phased out and will end with the 2010 spawning season. The program in the upper Grande Ronde River is being transitioned to a Safety Net Program, which will rear salmon to be used in years when insufficient numbers of adults return for the conventional hatchery programs. Captive broodstock projects for Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon are supported by recommendations in the Snake River Salmon Recovery Team, NMFS draft recovery plan, and the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program. This project addresses some objectives identified in the 1994 Fish and Wildlife Program. 2. History: Accomplishments, Results, and Adaptive Management The primary accomplishment for the Captive Broodstock Program was the successful rearing and spawning of natural parr (and later eggs) to produce smolts for release in select Oregon watersheds. The Catherine Creek and Lostine River populations have increased and have reached the Program’s goal of a consistent return of >150 adults spawning in nature. As a result, the Captive Broodstock Program for these two populations has come to an end. Data to assess any contribution the captive broodstock program had to this increase in abundance awaits future analysis. The last of the fish from these two populations will be spawned in 2010. Details on accomplishments and significant findings about the program were not provided in the proposal but some findings were described in the presentation. It was not clear whether the adult spawning goal of 150 fish was hatchery fish, hatchery/wild crosses, or natural origin fish. The ISRP has emphasized the need to provide performance expectations for the abundance of both hatchery- and natural-origin adults in supplementation programs. The Upper Grande Ronde River population has not quite reached the Program’s goal for abundance. Some years it has had an extremely high abundance of salmon spawning in nature (>500), while in other years the abundance has been well under 100 adults. Therefore, ODFW and the Umatilla Tribe have begun a Safety Net Program for the Upper Grande Ronde River Chinook salmon population. This program will take 300 eyed eggs from the Upper Grande Ronde River Conventional Hatchery Program (equal numbers of eggs from all females) and rear them in captivity to maturation. If they are unable to collect a sufficient number of returning adults for the Conventional Hatchery Program for a given spawn year, they will spawn the Safety Net adults and use their offspring to supplement the Conventional Program production. If the Safety Net Program adults are not needed, they will be released and allowed to spawn naturally in Upper Grande Ronde River tributaries that do not currently contain Chinook salmon. The program has adapted to emerging problems that have arisen, such as BKD. 3. Project Relationships, Emerging Limiting Factors, and Tailored Questions for Type of Work (Hatchery, RME, Tagging) The project is reportedly integrated with other hatchery, habitat, and research projects in the Grande Ronde Basin. The project has followed previous recommendations to phase out the program when natural production goals were achieved. The proposal noted that excess fish from the Captive Broodstock Program may be released into suitable under-seeded streams (Wallowa River (9 RK 64-76), Hurricane Creek (RK 0-8), Bear Creek (RK 0-14) and Prairie Creek (RK 0-8) in the Wallowa River drainage; Sheep Creek (RK 0-8) in the Upper Grande Ronde River drainage). These supplementation activities should be evaluated in the final report. The project should demonstrate collaboration with other groups working in the watershed. 4. Deliverables, Work Elements, Metrics, and Methods Portions of the deliverables were attributed to captive rearing and others to safety net. It was not clear to the ISRP how Accord safety net tasks are being separated from ongoing captive rearing tasks. The final report should provide a comprehensive review of the Captive Broodstock Program, including but not limited to numbers of parr/eggs collected, their survival to smolt stage, and subsequent return as adults. The report should evaluate whether increased abundance in Catherine Creek and the Lostine River can be attributed to the captive brood stock program and what fraction was related to natural production. Density-dependent effects should be evaluated and discussed in light of supplementation activities and the potential for ongoing habitat restoration to increase the capacity of streams to support salmon. Comparisons with reference streams (Minam and Wenaha) should be made if possible. Efforts by other projects in the watershed should be incorporated into the final report as necessary to provide a comprehensive review of Chinook salmon population dynamics, supplementation effects, and habitat restoration.

The ISRP recommends "Fundable (Qualified)" with the qualification being that this project needs to be funded only if the Grande Ronde and Salmon River Chinook captive propagation proposals are funded.

The technical and scientific background summarizes the problem facing managers trying to prevent extirpation of depleted animal populations, including Pacific salmon. The ISRP takes exception, however, to the first sentence of paragraph two on page 3: "Captive propagation of animals to maximize their survival and reproductive potential has won acceptance in endangered species restoration (Gipps ....)." In fact there is not a single species the ISRP is aware of that has been brought into captivity because the remaining numbers were so low that extinction was imminent, that has been returned to a self-sustaining status in the wild. Captive propagation remains a highly controversial avenue to pursue and should be regarded as experimental and untested.

Project personnel prepared a generally thorough description of the project's history, providing very succinct and useful summary of the number of smolts from each population that were transferred to Manchester, the ages at which they matured, and the percent survival. It would be good to break this table down by sex as well. Questions remain, however, regarding the continuing need for and desirability of the project. Data presented to justify the project concern the number of fish produced in the program. The real assessment of the project is the character of the contribution to the viability of these stocks. The summary shows success in raising and spawning the affected fish, but there does not seem to be any information available to document the project's impact on the viability of these fish populations.

The objectives were specific work elements. The ISRP believes it appropriate that this project have objectives similar to the 1998010006/1998010001 and 199700100 the Oregon and Idaho project for which they are rearing fish: prevent extirpation of listed ESU or independent populations of Chinook salmon, and contribute to the restoration of self-sustaining natural populations. The benefits are difficult to assess because the goal is to maintain or enhance the viability of the impacted stocks. The fish propagation goals are defined and measurable.

Some benefit may accrue in the short-term for a threatened stock, but the techniques used here are inconsistent with recovery of threatened species in the long-term.

The captive rearing at Manchester is unlikely to have major impacts on non-focal species, particularly since the effluent from the culture system is treated with ozone before discharge to Puget Sound. The most likely sources of impacts would be disease, possibly eutrophication of receiving waters, and interaction with escaped fish. These should be taken care of by the shore-based tank system.

Fundable-in-part to continue and complete the captive propagation experiment. The project has already continued to collect parr beyond the timeframe that was initially envisioned. Additional parr collections do not seem justified. This project should be limited to raising the parr they now have collected, and completing the envisioned experiment.

The ISRP recommendation is Qualified in that the design of the final analysis needs to be capable of quantifying the demographic effect of natural spawning by captive propagated and supplementation adults on natural production in the next generation.

Several concerns were raised in the preliminary ISRP review. First it was not clear from the proposal that an increase in the abundance of natural-origin adult Chinook is a goal of this project, and the ISRP response stated that the ISRP believes it should be. Second, the proposal implies that a sustained production of wild fish is a goal; however, since the 150,000 smolts with an SAR of 0.1% is a goal from fish production, the ISRP response stated that "it is not clear how these fish are being called wild Chinook salmon," and that "the critical benefit to the focal species would be an increase in the numbers of natural-origin adults in the treatment stream, not just increases in the numbers of hatchery-origin adults."

The preliminary ISRP review then asked the sponsors to address four questions. The following is an assessment of the quality of their responses.

1. Identify the method by which they will determine the demographic benefit to the focal species - in terms of an increase in the numbers of natural-origin adults.

Their response was very thorough: "We are using a variety of approaches to assess the natural-origin demographic benefit provided by natural spawning hatchery fish, including: comparing demographic trends … comparing pre- and post-treatment smolts produced per parent in all three treatment streams."

2. Outline the 19-year experiment identified in the December 19, 2003 document and clarify when juvenile (parr) collections are no longer needed to support that experiment.

They did that, but explained "we continued to collect parr because we had not met our goal of a consistent return of 150 adults spawning in nature and had problems with the experimental component that required more brood years of parr collection for captive rearing (see below)." Given that this is an experiment, this seems unjustified. We emphasize that a demographic benefit from this program is yet to be demonstrated. On that basis, we encourage the co-managers to seriously consider the option of phasing out the captive propagation program in the Lostine system, per the discussion in the response to the ISRP.

3. If that timeframe is already passed provide justification for additional collections.

The response, "We had not achieved our threshold annual goal of a consistent return of 150 adults spawning in nature in the Catherine Creek and Grande Ronde River populations at the time we collected the 1999 brood year parr (Table 1)."

Sponsors have passed the timeframe for collecting parr for their experimental evaluation of captive propagation and continue to collect parr, albeit at a reduced number. The rational for continuing the collections is that the target populations have not yet reached the abundance thresholds decided upon by the co-managers. A decision on the efficacy of the captive propagation technology will be decided in 2014 after the data collection and analysis from the 19-year experimental phase is concluded. Further, the ISRP encourages the timely reporting of the demographic response of the target populations as the data becomes available.

4. Identify the timeframe for providing a reasonable demographic benefit to the focal species or the technology would be judged ineffective.

Their response was straightforward: "We plan to follow the schedule of the 19 year experiment to determine whether the Captive Broodstock program can increase the number of natural spawners." That is encouraging.

The authors, however, did add the following:
"At that time, we will have adequate data to assess relative reproductive success of the Captive Broodstock F1 generation, trends in total population abundance, recruits:spawner ratios, total adults spawning in nature and abundance of natural origin adults and compare these within streams in pre- vs. post-supplementation comparisons and with unsupplemented reference streams. The evaluation of the reproductive success of the Captive Broodstock offspring will also be done genetically by identifying the F2 generation on the spawning grounds. We will also measure and compare variables such as survival, size and age at maturation, sex ratio, migration and spawn timing, and spawning distribution."

The ISRP concern is that the DNA pedigree analysis should provide the way to conduct the evaluation - but it not sufficiently clear what is to really be done. Because that information is the key to determining the real level of success of the captive propagation experiment underway, that methodology could/should be explained in detail.

Fundable in Part to continue and complete the captive propagation experiment. Along with 199801001, the project has already continued to collect parr beyond the time frame that was initially envisioned. Additional parr collections do not seem justified. This project should be limited to raising the parr they now have collected, and completing the envisioned experiment.

Qualification is that the design of the analysis be capable of quantifying the demographic effect of natural spawning by captive propagated and supplementation adults on natural production in the next generation.

Proposal 199801006 is a component, along with 199801001, of a captive propagation project for spring Chinook in the Grande Ronde subbasin. 199801006 is involved with monitoring the natural parr that are collected and then reared at hatcheries/facilities maintained by Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife and NOAA Fisheries. Sponsors of 199801001 operate acclimation facilities on Catherine Creek, Lostine River, and the upper Grande Ronde.

In the preliminary review the ISRP requested a response that clarified the tasks performed by the sponsor under this proposal, and the tasks performed by other co-managers.

The authors' response clearly laid out the various organizations involved and summarized them nicely in Table 1. 2006 Field Activities Schedule and Table 2. 2006 Technical Oversight Team Meeting Schedule. They also explained the split in M&E activities at Bonneville and at Manchester. The ISRP thanks the sponsor for succinctly providing this information.

The ISRP also requested a summary of the data on returning adult hatchery progeny of the captive reared parents collected as natural parr. The sponsors provided this information for the Lostine River site. The authors' response was good in one sense - that it gave substantial details about the adult return data. In the Lostine River there has been an increase in the numbers of returning adults of all types: natural, captive propagation, and supplementation.

From this brief summary it is not possible to attribute the increase in natural adults (the ultimate goal of both the captive propagation and supplementation) to either artificial production program. The ISRP urges that the analysis of data be designed to rigorously evaluate the contribution of artificial production to natural production in the next generation. There is a need to develop information on the parentage of the "naturally produced returning adults." Were they the product of wild x wild, wild x hatchery (and which type), or hatchery x hatchery (and which type) matings in the wild? The DNA pedigree analysis should provide the way to determine that, but it not clear what is to really be done. Because that information is the key to determining the real level of success of the supplementation experiment underway, that methodology could/should be explained in detail.